Browns @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sun, Dec 8, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Pittsburgh Steelers · Division game

Weather at kickoff49°F11 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

3-9 · Power #28

final

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

9-3 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

PIT -6.5

✓ PIT W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 17–24 PIT

✓ PIT (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -5.5

ClosePIT -6.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPIT -5.5

1 → PIT

ClosePIT -6.5

1 pt toward Pittsburgh Steelers

Total

Open41.5

▲ 1

Close42.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PIT -5.5 · closed PIT -6.5 · moved 1 toward PITmodel PIT -7.5

model PIT -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 46% (74 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (40 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -5.5

ClosePIT -6.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 6.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 27–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 42.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 7; 49.7 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DEN vs CLE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	41–32	W	O41.5
Very close	LAC vs TEN 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & rest	-8.5	27–17	W	O40.5
Very close	PIT vs NYG 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	26–18	W	O37.5
Very close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & total	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Very close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & rest	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Very close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & rest	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Close	LAC vs NO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	26–8	W	U41.5
Close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Close	TB vs DEN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	7–26	L	U40.5
Close	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE WLLWL	4-8	33%	2-4	4-4
PIT WWWLW	8-3	73%	4-1	3-3

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; PIT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OUOOO	6-6	50%	3-9
PIT OOUOO	7-4	64%	9-3

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
PIT	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

CLE 14–42 PIT (1 tied) PIT leads · 57 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 21 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 19 @ Cleveland Browns 24	PIT -3.5	CLE W
Nov 19 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 10 @ Cleveland Browns 13	CLE -2.5	CLE W
Sep 18 2023	Cleveland Browns 22 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 26	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE+1.1 →−2.8▼ 3.9#26

PIT−0.4 →+2.7▲ 3.1#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

CLE

Longer bar = better

PIT

#30

Offense

PIT better ▶

#16

#21

Defense

PIT better ▶

#10

−0.7 #28

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+1.3 #2

66 plays #1

Pace

Even

66 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	CLE off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	18.2 #29	18.7 #6	PIT
Yards / play	4.74 #29	5.35 #13	PIT
EPA / play	−0.12 #29	−0.07 #7	PIT
Success rate	38% #31	43% #13	PIT

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: PIT offense

	PIT off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #10	25.7 #26	PIT
Yards / play	5.25 #19	5.80 #30	PIT
EPA / play	+0.01 #13	+0.03 #21	PIT
Success rate	41% #22	40% #8	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.6 #20	4.3 #31	7.8 #30	3.6 #24	6.8 #17	10.3 #22
PIT allowed	5.4 #27	5.3 #6	10.8 #13	1.3 #1	6.6 #17	7.9 #3

PIT scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	3.5 #21	6.4 #18	9.9 #22	6.3 #8	8.4 #3	14.8 #4
CLE allowed	4.1 #13	9.5 #27	13.6 #29	6.2 #28	5.9 #15	12.1 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.