Panthers @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sun, Dec 8, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Philadelphia Eagles

Weather at kickoff55°F14 mphgusts 34DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

3-9 · Power #32

final

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

10-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -13.5

✓ CAR W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 14–28 PHI

✓ PHI (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -12.5

ClosePHI -13.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -12.5

1 → PHI

ClosePHI -13.5

1 pt toward Philadelphia Eagles

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -12.5 · closed PHI -13.5 · moved 1 toward PHImodel PHI -15.5

model PHI -15.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (40 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -12.5

ClosePHI -13.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 13.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 22–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

8 of 989%

Above normal · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 27.5 against an average line of 13.5; 47.9 points a game (usually 46.4). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Very close	DET vs JAX 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	52–6	W	O47.5
Close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Close	BUF vs ATL 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	29–15	P	U46
Loose	BUF vs NYJ 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-15.5	27–10	W	U42.5
Loose	BUF vs PIT 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	38–3	W	U44.5
Loose	LAR vs JAX 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13	37–7	W	U47.5
Loose	WSH vs CAR 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-10.5	40–7	W	U50.5
Loose	SF vs ARI 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	38–13	W	O40.5
Loose	DAL vs WSH 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form	-13	45–10	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR LWWWW	5-7	42%	1-4	5-7
PHI LWWWW	8-4	67%	1-3	5-4

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR OOUOO	9-3	75%	3-9
PHI OUUOU	5-7	42%	10-2

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 51% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
PHI	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAR 6–8 PHI PHI leads · 14 games since 1999 · CAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−2.5 →−7.1▼ 4.6#32

PHI−0.1 →+4.8▲ 4.9#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

CAR

Longer bar = better

PHI

#26

Offense

PHI better ▶

#31

Defense

PHI better ▶

−0.3 #23

Turnovers

PHI better ▶

+0.3 #10

58 plays #31

Pace

PHI faster ▶

65 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: PHI defense

	CAR off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	18.1 #30	18.2 #4	PHI
Yards / play	5.03 #24	4.77 #1	PHI
EPA / play	−0.11 #28	−0.08 #5	PHI
Success rate	41% #21	40% #4	PHI

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #8	30.5 #32	PHI
Yards / play	5.80 #9	5.79 #28	PHI
EPA / play	+0.11 #5	+0.12 #31	PHI
Success rate	46% #10	49% #32	PHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.4 #22	5.8 #21	9.3 #23	4.4 #18	4.2 #30	8.6 #27
PHI allowed	4.7 #23	4.3 #3	8.9 #5	4.6 #9	4.7 #6	9.3 #6

PHI scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	1.4 #32	9.0 #7	10.4 #17	7.3 #3	9.0 #2	16.3 #1
CAR allowed	7.0 #31	11.2 #32	18.2 #32	5.3 #21	6.8 #21	12.1 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.