Cowboys @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sun, Dec 15, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Carolina Panthers

Weather at kickoff44°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

5-8 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

Carolina Panthers

3-10 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

✓ DAL W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 23–25 CAR

✗ CAR (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAR -1.5

CloseCAR -2.5

Total43.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCAR -1.5

1 → CAR

CloseCAR -2.5

1 pt toward Carolina Panthers

Total

Open43.5

▼ 2

Close41.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CAR -1.5 · closed CAR -2.5 · moved 1 toward CARmodel DAL -2.5

model DAL -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (119 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (44 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAR -1.5

CloseCAR -2.5

Total43.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CAR as a 2.5-point home favorite against DAL, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: DAL won 30–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.1 against an average line of 3.2; 41.7 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TEN vs JAX 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	6–10	L	U40.5
Close	TEN vs NE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	20–17	L	U38.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	CHI vs LAR 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–18	W	O40.5
Close	JAX vs IND 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	37–34	L	O44.5
Loose	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5
Loose	JAX vs CLE 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	13–18	L	U41.5
Loose	NYJ vs JAX 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2.5	26–21	W	O43
Loose	MIA vs IND 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	17–27	L	O42
Loose	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL LLWWL	4-9	31%	3-3	3-7
CAR WWWWW	6-7	46%	3-3	—

Venue/role: DAL away, as underdog; CAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL UOOOU	8-5	62%	5-8
CAR OUOOU	9-4	69%	3-10

Went over in Q4. Of 102 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
CAR	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DAL 11–4 CAR DAL leads · 15 games since 2000 · CAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 19 2023	Dallas Cowboys 33 @ Carolina Panthers 10	DAL -11	DAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL+2.5 →−2.0▼ 4.5#25

CAR−2.5 →−6.7▼ 4.2#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

DAL

Longer bar = better

CAR

#26

Offense

Even

#26

#28

Defense

Even

#31

−0.6 #27

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #24

65 plays #4

Pace

◀ DAL faster

59 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #21	29.8 #32	DAL
Yards / play	4.98 #25	5.75 #28	Even
EPA / play	−0.13 #30	+0.12 #31	Even
Success rate	40% #27	48% #32	DAL

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	17.9 #28	28.2 #31	Even
Yards / play	4.97 #26	5.86 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.10 #27	+0.09 #30	Even
Success rate	41% #21	45% #23	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	3.2 #26	6.8 #16	10.0 #21	3.8 #25	6.8 #14	10.6 #17
CAR allowed	6.5 #31	11.4 #32	17.8 #32	4.8 #14	6.9 #21	11.8 #18

CAR scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.4 #23	5.9 #21	9.3 #23	4.5 #16	3.8 #30	8.4 #29
DAL allowed	7.1 #32	6.7 #18	13.8 #30	7.0 #32	7.4 #22	14.4 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.