Cardinals @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2024)

Sun, Dec 22, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Carolina Panthers

Weather at kickoff37°F3 mphgusts 13DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

7-7 · Power #17

final

Final

Carolina Panthers

3-11 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARI -5.5

✓ CAR W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 26–20 CAR

✗ ARI (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARI -4.5

CloseARI -5.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARI -4.5

1 → ARI

CloseARI -5.5

1 pt toward Arizona Cardinals

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARI -4.5 · closed ARI -5.5 · moved 1 toward ARImodel ARI -8

model ARI -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 50% (75 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (49 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARI -4.5

CloseARI -5.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARI as a 5.5-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CAR won 36–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 6; 44.4 points a game (usually 45.3). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB @ CAR 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	26–23	L	O46.5
Very close	ATL @ LV 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	15–9	W	U43.5
Close	CIN @ CAR 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Close	DEN @ LV 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	29–19	W	O41.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Close	ATL @ CAR 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread	-6.5	38–20	W	O45.5
Close	NO @ NYG 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & spread	-5.5	14–11	L	U41.5
Close	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5
Close	CLE @ HOU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	27–14	W	U46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI WLWLW	9-5	64%	4-2	3-3
CAR WWWWL	6-8	43%	3-4	6-7

Venue/role: ARI away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI UUUOO	7-7	50%	7-7
CAR UOOUO	10-4	71%	3-11

Went over in Q4. Of 94 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
CAR	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARI 7–14 CAR CAR leads · 21 games since 2001 · ARI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI−1.7 →+0.1▲ 1.8#15

CAR−2.5 →−7.3▼ 4.8#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

ARI

Longer bar = better

CAR

#11

Offense

◀ ARI better

#27

#22

Defense

◀ ARI better

#31

−0.1 #19

Turnovers

◀ ARI better

−0.6 #27

60 plays #26

Pace

◀ ARI faster

58 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: ARI offense

	ARI off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #16	29.9 #32	ARI
Yards / play	5.88 #7	5.76 #28	ARI
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	+0.13 #31	ARI
Success rate	46% #9	49% #32	ARI

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	17.6 #28	21.9 #10	ARI
Yards / play	4.95 #27	5.55 #22	ARI
EPA / play	−0.11 #28	+0.05 #25	Even
Success rate	41% #23	48% #31	CAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.9 #6	6.4 #19	12.3 #14	4.6 #17	5.5 #25	10.1 #21
CAR allowed	6.0 #31	11.3 #32	17.3 #32	5.5 #24	6.9 #20	12.4 #21

CAR scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.1 #24	6.0 #21	9.1 #24	4.2 #21	4.1 #30	8.3 #30
ARI allowed	4.6 #17	7.6 #22	12.2 #18	4.6 #13	5.1 #6	9.6 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.