Saints @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2024)

Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff32°F7 mphgusts 13DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

5-9 · Power #25

final

Final

Green Bay Packers

10-4 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -14.5

✓ GB W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 15–29 GB

✓ GB (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -14

CloseGB -14.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -14

0.5 → GB

CloseGB -14.5

0.5 pts toward Green Bay Packers

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -14 · closed GB -14.5 · moved 0.5 toward GBmodel GB -14.5 matches the line

model GB -14.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -14

CloseGB -14.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 14.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 34–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 19.4 against an average line of 13.8; 47.8 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DET vs JAX 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	52–6	W	O47.5
Close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Close	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5
Close	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Loose	BUF vs CAR 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-14.5	31–14	W	O43
Loose	SF vs ARI 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	38–13	W	O40.5
Loose	MIA vs TEN 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13.5	27–28	L	O44.5
Loose	BUF vs PIT 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-14	38–3	W	U44.5
Loose	SF vs SEA 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	28–16	L	U45.5
Loose	BUF vs ATL 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	29–15	P	U46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WWLLW	6-8	43%	2-4	5-5
GB LWWWW	8-6	57%	4-3	5-4

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UOUUU	7-7	50%	5-9
GB UOUOU	7-7	50%	10-4

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 50% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
GB	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NO 6–6 GB Series tied · 12 games since 2002 · GB has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 24 2023	New Orleans Saints 17 @ Green Bay Packers 18	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO+0.5 →−1.9▼ 2.4#24

GB+0.5 →+4.4▲ 3.9#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

#18

Offense

GB better ▶

#19

Defense

GB better ▶

#12

+0.1 #16

Turnovers

GB better ▶

+0.7 #4

62 plays #18

Pace

◀ NO faster

60 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	NO off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #16	20.5 #8	GB
Yards / play	5.43 #14	5.24 #8	GB
EPA / play	−0.03 #20	−0.06 #6	GB
Success rate	41% #20	45% #26	NO

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #7	22.3 #12	GB
Yards / play	6.26 #2	5.78 #29	GB
EPA / play	+0.09 #8	+0.01 #16	GB
Success rate	44% #15	44% #20	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	4.7 #13	8.2 #8	12.9 #10	2.8 #29	6.4 #18	9.1 #28
GB allowed	2.4 #1	9.1 #28	11.5 #16	5.1 #17	3.9 #1	9.0 #4

GB scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	6.8 #4	7.1 #16	13.9 #6	6.4 #8	6.8 #14	13.1 #11
NO allowed	3.6 #7	6.5 #13	10.1 #11	5.1 #18	7.1 #24	12.2 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.