Broncos @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2024)

Thu, Dec 19, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Los Angeles Chargers · Division game

Weather at kickoff68°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

9-5 · Power #15

final

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

8-6 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

✓ LAC W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 20–22 LAC

✓ LAC (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -3

CloseLAC -2.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -3

0.5 → DEN

CloseLAC -2.5

0.5 pts toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -3 · closed LAC -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward DENmodel LAC -1

model LAC -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 51% (124 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -3

CloseLAC -2.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 2.5-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 34–27; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.2 against an average line of 2.8; 49.8 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	TEN vs GB 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread	-2.5	14–30	L	O36.5
Loose	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Loose	MIN vs NE 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	33–26	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN WWWWW	11-2	85%	6-1	4-2
LAC WLWWL	10-4	71%	5-2	8-2

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UUOOO	9-4	69%	9-5
LAC OOUUO	5-9	36%	8-6

Went over in Q3. Of 106 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	8-2 80%
LAC	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

DEN 33–23 LAC DEN leads · 56 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 13 2024	Los Angeles Chargers 23 @ Denver Broncos 16	LAC -2.5	LAC W
Dec 31 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 9 @ Denver Broncos 16	DEN -3.5	DEN W
Dec 10 2023	Denver Broncos 24 @ Los Angeles Chargers 7	LAC -3	DEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN−1.0 →+0.9▲ 1.9#13

LAC−0.7 →+0.2▲ 0.9#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

DEN

Longer bar = better

LAC

#19

Offense

Even

#21

Defense

◀ DEN better

+0.4 #10

Turnovers

LAC better ▶

+0.8 #4

61 plays #21

Pace

◀ DEN faster

58 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	DEN off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #11	17.6 #3	LAC
Yards / play	5.06 #23	5.37 #14	LAC
EPA / play	−0.04 #20	−0.05 #8	LAC
Success rate	41% #21	42% #8	LAC

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	LAC off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #20	17.6 #1	DEN
Yards / play	5.24 #18	4.82 #2	DEN
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	−0.15 #1	DEN
Success rate	39% #28	38% #2	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.6 #27	9.1 #5	11.8 #15	4.1 #23	8.1 #6	12.2 #12
LAC allowed	2.6 #2	4.3 #1	6.9 #1	3.9 #4	6.9 #20	10.8 #15

LAC scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.0 #11	7.6 #10	12.6 #11	3.9 #25	4.5 #29	8.4 #28
DEN allowed	4.4 #15	6.7 #16	11.1 #14	2.9 #2	3.6 #1	6.6 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.