Broncos @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2024)

Sat, Dec 28, 2024, 4:30 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Cincinnati Bengals

Weather at kickoff59°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

9-6 · Power #15

final

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

7-8 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

✓ CIN W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 23–26 CIN

✓ CIN (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -3

CloseCIN -3.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -3

0.5 → CIN

CloseCIN -3.5

0.5 pts toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open48.5

▲ 2

Close50.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -3 · closed CIN -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward CINmodel CIN -1.5

model CIN -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 53% (129 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -3

CloseCIN -3.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 3.5-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CIN won 30–24; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5 against an average line of 3.2; 52.6 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Very close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	CIN vs PIT 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	38–44	L	O46.5
Close	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN WWWWL	11-3	79%	6-2	4-3
CIN LLWWW	9-6	60%	2-5	7-4

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOOO	10-4	71%	9-6
CIN OOUOU	10-5	67%	7-8

Went over in OT. Of 48 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–53.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%
CIN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DEN 9–6 CIN DEN leads · 15 games since 2000 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN−1.0 →+0.8▲ 1.8#13

CIN−0.2 →+0.2▲ 0.4#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

DEN

Longer bar = better

CIN

#17

Offense

CIN better ▶

Defense

◀ DEN better

#26

+0.4 #9

Turnovers

◀ DEN better

+0.3 #13

62 plays #17

Pace

Even

62 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: DEN offense

	DEN off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #10	26.2 #28	DEN
Yards / play	5.10 #23	5.57 #21	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	+0.04 #26	DEN
Success rate	41% #19	47% #30	DEN

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	CIN off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #6	18.7 #4	Even
Yards / play	5.84 #8	4.91 #2	DEN
EPA / play	+0.09 #8	−0.13 #1	DEN
Success rate	47% #10	39% #1	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.9 #28	9.5 #3	12.4 #14	4.1 #23	7.7 #7	11.8 #12
CIN allowed	3.9 #11	7.9 #22	11.8 #18	5.5 #23	8.7 #29	14.2 #29

CIN scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	6.0 #5	7.8 #10	13.8 #7	7.1 #4	7.3 #9	14.4 #4
DEN allowed	4.5 #16	6.7 #16	11.2 #15	3.1 #2	4.4 #3	7.5 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.