Chiefs @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2024)

Sun, Jan 5, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Denver Broncos · Division game

Weather at kickoff28°F1 mphgusts 9DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

15-1 · Power #6

final

Final

Denver Broncos

9-7 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -11.5

✓ DEN W

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 15–25 DEN

✓ DEN (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -8

CloseDEN -11.5

Total39.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -8

3.5 → DEN

CloseDEN -11.5

3.5 pts toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open39.5

▲ 1

Close40.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -8 · closed DEN -11.5 · moved 3.5 toward DENmodel DEN -2

model DEN -2

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -8

CloseDEN -11.5

Total39.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like DEN as an 11.5-point home favorite against KC, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 38–0; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 5 similar games. 38 points stayed under 40.5, as in 1 of 5.

Favorite won

3 of 560%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

4 of 580%

Normal range · usually 56%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.8 against an average line of 10.4; 50.4 points a game (usually 47). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CIN vs BAL 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & situation	-11	27–16	P	O39
Loose	NYJ vs DEN 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar total	-8.5	9–10	L	U39.5
Loose	GB vs MIN 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation & season form	-12.5	37–10	W	O42.5
Loose	JAX vs CIN 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation	-10	31–34	L	O41
Loose	DAL vs CHI 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form	-10	49–29	W	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC LLWWW	7-9	44%	4-4	1-1
DEN WWWLL	11-4	73%	5-1	7-0

Venue/role: KC away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UUUOU	7-9	44%	15-1
DEN OOOOO	11-4	73%	9-7

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 51% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	9-1 90%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
DEN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

KC 31–24 DEN KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 10 2024	Denver Broncos 14 @ Kansas City Chiefs 16	KC -7.5	DEN W
Oct 29 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 9 @ Denver Broncos 24	KC -7	DEN W
Oct 12 2023	Denver Broncos 8 @ Kansas City Chiefs 19	KC -9.5	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+2.2 →+4.1▲ 1.9#6

DEN−1.0 →+0.6▲ 1.6#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

Longer bar = better

DEN

#11

Offense

◀ KC better

#17

Defense

DEN better ▶

+0.4 #11

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #12

66 plays #1

Pace

◀ KC faster

61 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	KC off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #11	19.4 #5	DEN
Yards / play	5.17 #19	4.99 #2	DEN
EPA / play	+0.09 #8	−0.11 #1	DEN
Success rate	49% #4	40% #4	Even

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	DEN off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #10	18.0 #3	KC
Yards / play	5.13 #23	5.21 #8	KC
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	−0.02 #10	KC
Success rate	42% #19	43% #9	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	4.4 #16	8.8 #4	13.2 #9	3.7 #25	6.8 #13	10.5 #18
DEN allowed	4.3 #14	6.7 #15	10.9 #14	3.1 #2	5.0 #5	8.1 #2

DEN scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.9 #28	8.9 #3	11.8 #16	4.3 #22	8.1 #6	12.4 #12
KC allowed	3.1 #6	5.6 #9	8.7 #4	4.3 #11	5.0 #5	9.3 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.