Jaguars @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2024)

Sun, Jan 5, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Indianapolis Colts · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-12 · Power #29

final

Final

Indianapolis Colts

7-9 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

IND -3.5

✓ JAX W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 23–27 IND

✓ IND (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -4.5

CloseIND -3.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIND -4.5

1 → JAX

CloseIND -3.5

1 pt toward Jacksonville Jaguars

Total

Open44.5

▲ 1

Close45.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IND -4.5 · closed IND -3.5 · moved 1 toward JAXmodel IND -4.5

model IND -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 53% (131 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 37% (35 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -4.5

CloseIND -3.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 3.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 26–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.7 against an average line of 3.9; 42.7 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND vs TEN 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	38–30	W	O43.5
Very close	IND vs MIA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	16–10	W	U43.5
Close	ARI vs NE 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total & situation	-5.5	30–17	W	O46.5
Close	LAR vs MIA 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	15–23	L	U50.5
Close	TEN vs JAX 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	6–10	L	U40.5
Close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Close	SF vs CHI 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	38–13	W	O43.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	SF vs LAR 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	6–12	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WWLLW	9-7	56%	4-3	8-4
IND LLLWL	9-7	56%	5-2	3-3

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; IND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UUOUU	8-8	50%	4-12
IND UOOOO	9-7	56%	7-9

Went over in Q4. Of 130 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	3-7 30%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
IND	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

JAX 22–27 IND IND leads · 49 games since 2000 · JAX has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 6 2024	Indianapolis Colts 34 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 37	JAX -3.5	IND W
Oct 15 2023	Indianapolis Colts 20 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 37	JAX -3.5	JAX W
Sep 10 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 31 @ Indianapolis Colts 21	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+0.2 →−4.1▼ 4.3#29

IND−0.6 →−1.8▼ 1.2#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

JAX

Longer bar = better

IND

#21

Offense

Even

#21

#29

Defense

IND better ▶

#19

−0.9 #29

Turnovers

IND better ▶

−0.3 #20

58 plays #32

Pace

IND faster ▶

60 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	18.6 #26	25.3 #26	Even
Yards / play	5.29 #18	5.58 #23	JAX
EPA / play	−0.02 #18	0.00 #15	Even
Success rate	41% #20	43% #13	IND

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #17	25.6 #27	IND
Yards / play	5.46 #13	5.92 #32	IND
EPA / play	−0.06 #24	+0.14 #31	IND
Success rate	40% #30	45% #24	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	2.9 #27	5.4 #26	8.3 #27	4.6 #14	5.6 #21	10.3 #19
IND allowed	3.9 #9	6.5 #14	10.4 #12	5.1 #19	9.7 #32	14.8 #31

IND scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	4.4 #15	6.0 #23	10.4 #20	3.3 #27	8.2 #5	11.5 #13
JAX allowed	4.3 #13	8.1 #24	12.3 #22	5.0 #17	8.3 #28	13.3 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.