Commanders @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2024)

Sun, Jan 5, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Dallas Cowboys · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

11-5 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Dallas Cowboys

7-9 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

WSH -7.5

✓ DAL W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 29–22 DAL

✓ WSH (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -3.5

CloseWSH -7.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSH -3.5

4 → WSH

CloseWSH -7.5

4 pts toward Washington Commanders

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSH -3.5 · closed WSH -7.5 · moved 4 toward WSHmodel WSH -5.5

model WSH -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 44% (44 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -3.5

CloseWSH -7.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSH as a 7.5-point road favorite at DAL, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 23–19; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 71%

Favorite covered

8 of 989%

Above normal · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 19.1 against an average line of 6.7; 43.3 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN @ JAX 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	12–7	L	U42.5
Close	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	TB @ NYG 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form	-6.5	30–7	W	U40.5
Close	ATL @ CAR 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar total	-6.5	38–20	W	O45.5
Loose	IND @ HOU 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.5	31–0	W	U45
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & total	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Loose	PHI @ WSH 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	38–31	P	O42.5
Loose	LAC @ NE 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form & rest	-5.5	40–7	W	O41.5
Loose	BAL @ HOU 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6.5	31–2	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLWW	11-5	69%	4-3	7-3
DAL WLWWL	6-10	38%	2-6	5-8

Venue/role: WSH away, as favorite; DAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OOUOO	11-5	69%	11-5
DAL OUOOO	11-5	69%	7-9

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 23. 51% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
DAL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

WSH 16–39 DAL DAL leads · 55 games since 1999 · DAL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 24 2024	Dallas Cowboys 34 @ Washington Commanders 26	WSH -10.5	DAL W
Jan 7 2023	Dallas Cowboys 38 @ Washington Commanders 10	DAL -13	DAL W
Nov 23 2023	Washington Commanders 10 @ Dallas Cowboys 45	DAL -13	DAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−3.1 →+1.2▲ 4.3#11

DAL+2.5 →−2.1▼ 4.6#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

WSH

Longer bar = better

DAL

Offense

◀ WSH better

#26

#17

Defense

◀ WSH better

#29

+0.1 #15

Turnovers

◀ WSH better

−0.4 #27

65 plays #4

Pace

Even

64 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #5	27.8 #31	WSH
Yards / play	5.75 #9	5.82 #28	WSH
EPA / play	+0.14 #4	+0.08 #30	WSH
Success rate	49% #5	45% #26	WSH

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: WSH defense

	DAL off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #21	23.3 #19	Even
Yards / play	5.04 #25	5.43 #15	WSH
EPA / play	−0.11 #30	+0.02 #17	WSH
Success rate	41% #26	43% #15	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	6.8 #2	7.9 #9	14.7 #4	5.5 #10	8.3 #4	13.8 #7
DAL allowed	6.2 #31	7.8 #23	14.0 #31	6.5 #31	7.3 #24	13.8 #28

DAL scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	3.7 #20	6.9 #17	10.6 #19	4.2 #22	5.9 #20	10.1 #21
WSH allowed	4.0 #10	4.8 #2	8.8 #4	5.0 #17	9.5 #31	14.5 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.