Ravens @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2024)

Wed, Dec 25, 2024, 4:30 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

10-5 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Houston Texans

9-6 · Power #11

final

Closing spread

BAL -6.5

✓ BAL W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 28–22 HOU

✓ BAL (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -3.5

CloseBAL -6.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -3.5

3 → BAL

CloseBAL -6.5

3 pts toward Baltimore Ravens

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -3.5 · closed BAL -6.5 · moved 3 toward BALmodel BAL -6

model BAL -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 47% (54 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 41% (29 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -3.5

CloseBAL -6.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 6.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 7, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: BAL won 31–2; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.9 against an average line of 5.7; 47.5 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar total & season form	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Close	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5
Loose	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar total & situation	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Loose	WSH @ NO 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & situation	-7.5	20–19	L	U44.5
Loose	DAL @ JAX 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation & season form	-6	34–40	L	O48
Loose	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & total	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Loose	SF @ TB 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form & situation	-6.5	23–20	L	U50.5
Loose	PHI @ IND 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & season form	-7.5	17–16	L	U45.5
Loose	PHI @ ARI 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-6	20–17	L	U48.5
Loose	DAL @ NO 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & season form	-5	27–17	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL LWLWW	8-7	53%	5-3	8-6
HOU WLLWL	6-9	40%	3-4	2-2

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL UOUOO	12-3	80%	10-5
HOU OOUUO	5-10	33%	9-6

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
HOU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BAL 13–3 HOU BAL leads · 16 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 20 2023	Houston Texans 10 @ Baltimore Ravens 34	BAL -10	BAL W
Sep 10 2023	Houston Texans 9 @ Baltimore Ravens 25	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+3.1 →+5.8▲ 2.7#2

HOU+0.1 →+1.2▲ 1.1#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

BAL

Longer bar = better

HOU

Offense

◀ BAL better

#22

#12

Defense

HOU better ▶

+0.2 #14

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.7 #4

62 plays #15

Pace

Even

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	30.1 #3	21.8 #9	BAL
Yards / play	6.86 #1	4.96 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.22 #1	−0.08 #4	Even
Success rate	50% #1	39% #1	Even

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	HOU off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	23.1 #13	23.3 #21	HOU
Yards / play	5.13 #22	5.32 #11	BAL
EPA / play	−0.04 #22	−0.01 #11	BAL
Success rate	39% #31	41% #4	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	4.7 #12	10.0 #2	14.7 #3	6.9 #4	8.3 #4	15.2 #2
HOU allowed	4.3 #13	5.1 #6	9.4 #6	5.5 #24	6.9 #20	12.4 #22

HOU scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.8 #7	7.9 #8	13.7 #8	4.3 #20	5.1 #28	9.5 #25
BAL allowed	3.1 #6	6.8 #16	9.9 #10	4.5 #13	8.9 #29	13.4 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.