Seahawks @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2024)

Thu, Dec 26, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff43°F9 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Seattle Seahawks

8-7 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Chicago Bears

4-11 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

SEA -4.5

✓ CHI W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 9 pts

Model before kickoff

SEA 23–19 CHI

✓ SEA (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSEA -3.5

CloseSEA -4.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSEA -3.5

1 → SEA

CloseSEA -4.5

1 pt toward Seattle Seahawks

Total

Open42.5

no move

Close42.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SEA -3.5 · closed SEA -4.5 · moved 1 toward SEAmodel SEA -2.5

model SEA -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 54% (54 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (52 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSEA -3.5

CloseSEA -4.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 4.5-point road favorite at CHI, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: SEA won 6–3; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 9 points stayed under 42.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 4.5; 36.7 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Very close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Very close	NYJ @ JAX 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	32–25	W	O41.5
Very close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Very close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Very close	NO @ NYG 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	14–11	L	U41.5
Close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	DAL @ NYG 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	20–15	L	U44.5
Close	ATL @ LV 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	15–9	W	U43.5
Close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA WWWLL	6-9	40%	4-2	1-3
CHI LWLLL	7-8	47%	4-3	4-7

Venue/role: SEA away, as favorite; CHI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA UOOUO	8-7	53%	8-7
CHI OUOUO	6-9	40%	4-11

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
CHI	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SEA 8–6 CHI SEA leads · 14 games since 1999 · SEA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SEA−0.6 →−0.4▲ 0.2#19

CHI−0.3 →−2.5▼ 2.2#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

SEA

Longer bar = better

CHI

#16

Offense

◀ SEA better

#27

#16

Defense

◀ SEA better

#22

−0.5 #26

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

+0.5 #8

62 plays #16

Pace

CHI faster ▶

63 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: SEA offense

	SEA off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #14	22.8 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.45 #13	5.88 #31	SEA
EPA / play	−0.04 #21	+0.02 #22	Even
Success rate	43% #16	44% #19	Even

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	CHI off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #27	22.7 #13	SEA
Yards / play	4.65 #31	5.39 #13	SEA
EPA / play	−0.07 #25	0.00 #13	SEA
Success rate	40% #26	45% #23	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SEA scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	3.8 #19	7.3 #16	11.1 #18	4.6 #15	6.7 #16	11.3 #14
CHI allowed	5.7 #30	7.6 #20	13.3 #27	4.3 #11	5.0 #5	9.3 #5

CHI scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	1.3 #32	6.0 #22	7.3 #30	4.1 #21	7.4 #8	11.5 #13
SEA allowed	5.3 #24	6.6 #15	11.9 #18	5.0 #16	5.4 #11	10.4 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.