Packers @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2024)

Sun, Dec 29, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Minnesota Vikings · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

11-4 · Power #5

final

Final

Minnesota Vikings

13-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -0.5

✓ MIN W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 24–23 MIN

✗ GB (52%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -1.5

CloseGB -0.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -1.5

2 → GB

CloseGB -0.5

2 pts toward Green Bay Packers

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -1.5 · closed GB -0.5 · moved 2 toward GBmodel GB -2

model GB -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 62% (58 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -1.5

CloseGB -0.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 0.5-point road favorite at MIN, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 27–25 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 41%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 2.3; 52.4 points a game (usually 42.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	DET @ GB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	24–14	W	U48.5
Close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	ATL @ TB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-0.5	31–26	W	O47.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & rest	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Loose	BAL @ LAC 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form & rest	-2.5	30–23	W	O50.5
Loose	HOU @ MIN 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-2	7–34	L	U46.5
Loose	KC @ SF 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1	44–23	W	O49
Loose	GB @ MIN 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & rest	-1.5	31–34	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB WWWWW	9-6	60%	4-2	6-4
MIN WLWWW	11-4	73%	5-2	4-0

Venue/role: GB away, as favorite; MIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB OUOUU	7-8	47%	11-4
MIN OUOUO	6-9	40%	13-2

Went over in Q4. Of 82 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
MIN	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

GB 31–24 MIN (2 tied) GB leads · 57 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 29 2024	Minnesota Vikings 31 @ Green Bay Packers 29	GB -2.5	MIN W
Dec 31 2023	Green Bay Packers 33 @ Minnesota Vikings 10	GB -1	GB W
Oct 29 2023	Minnesota Vikings 24 @ Green Bay Packers 10	Pick’em	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+0.5 →+5.0▲ 4.5#4

MIN−0.1 →+2.6▲ 2.7#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

MIN

Offense

Even

#11

Defense

MIN better ▶

+0.8 #3

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #5

61 plays #22

Pace

MIN faster ▶

61 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #7	18.4 #3	Even
Yards / play	6.23 #3	5.27 #11	GB
EPA / play	+0.10 #7	−0.10 #2	MIN
Success rate	45% #15	41% #5	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #9	19.1 #5	Even
Yards / play	5.63 #12	5.15 #6	GB
EPA / play	+0.03 #12	−0.07 #4	GB
Success rate	46% #11	44% #21	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	6.8 #3	7.6 #13	14.4 #6	6.1 #8	7.0 #11	13.1 #9
MIN allowed	2.5 #2	5.5 #8	7.9 #2	4.1 #8	6.4 #17	10.5 #15

MIN scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	7.3 #1	5.6 #24	12.9 #11	6.4 #6	6.9 #13	13.3 #8
GB allowed	2.3 #1	8.5 #27	10.7 #13	4.7 #14	3.7 #1	8.4 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.