Vikings @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2024)

Sun, Jan 5, 2025, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Detroit Lions · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

14-2 · Power #8

final

Final

Detroit Lions

14-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -2.5

✓ DET W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 25–27 DET

✓ DET (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -3

CloseDET -2.5

Total51.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -3

0.5 → MIN

CloseDET -2.5

0.5 pts toward Minnesota Vikings

Total

Open51.5

▲ 5

Close56.5

Up 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -3 · closed DET -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward MINmodel DET -6

model DET -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (133 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -3

CloseDET -2.5

Total51.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 2.5-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 31–9; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1 against an average line of 3.4; 54 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DET vs GB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	34–31	L	O53.5
Close	DET vs BUF 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	42–48	L	O55.5
Loose	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Loose	DAL vs PHI 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	33–13	W	U52.5
Loose	TB vs BUF 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	33–27	W	O53
Loose	DAL vs SF 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	17–23	L	U51.5
Loose	DAL vs DET 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4.5	20–19	L	U53
Loose	DET vs LAR 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	24–23	L	U53
Loose	LAR vs ARI 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4	20–37	L	O54
Loose	ARI vs LAR 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	23–30	L	O51

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN LWWWW	12-4	75%	5-2	5-0
DET LLLWW	11-5	69%	4-4	10-5

Venue/role: MIN away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOUOO	7-9	44%	14-2
DET UOOOO	9-7	56%	14-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
DET	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

MIN 36–18 DET MIN leads · 54 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 20 2024	Detroit Lions 31 @ Minnesota Vikings 29	MIN -1.5	DET W
Jan 7 2023	Minnesota Vikings 20 @ Detroit Lions 30	DET -3.5	DET W
Dec 24 2023	Detroit Lions 30 @ Minnesota Vikings 24	DET -2.5	DET W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN−0.1 →+2.8▲ 2.9#7

DET+1.6 →+5.9▲ 4.3#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

MIN

Longer bar = better

DET

#11

Offense

DET better ▶

Defense

◀ MIN better

#13

+0.6 #7

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #5

62 plays #18

Pace

DET faster ▶

66 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #9	20.8 #8	Even
Yards / play	5.68 #11	5.83 #29	MIN
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	−0.04 #8	DET
Success rate	47% #11	42% #8	Even

When DET has the ball

Even matchup

	DET off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #1	18.8 #4	Even
Yards / play	6.24 #2	5.25 #8	DET
EPA / play	+0.18 #3	−0.09 #3	Even
Success rate	50% #1	41% #6	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	6.8 #2	6.1 #23	12.9 #11	6.9 #4	6.5 #16	13.4 #9
DET allowed	4.8 #23	5.5 #8	10.3 #9	5.3 #23	5.3 #9	10.6 #12

DET scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	4.6 #14	13.7 #1	18.3 #1	9.1 #1	5.6 #26	14.6 #4
MIN allowed	2.5 #2	5.1 #5	7.6 #1	4.3 #9	6.9 #19	11.2 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.