49ers @ Cardinals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2024)

Sun, Jan 5, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Arizona Cardinals · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

6-10 · Power #9

final

Final

Arizona Cardinals

7-9 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARI -4.5

✓ ARI W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 20–24 ARI

✓ ARI (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -1

CloseARI -4.5

Total46.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -1

5.5 → ARI

CloseARI -4.5

5.5 pts toward Arizona Cardinals

Total

Open46.5

▼ 4

Close42.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -1 · closed ARI -4.5 · moved 5.5 toward ARImodel ARI -3.5

model ARI -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 55% (89 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 35% (20 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -1

CloseARI -4.5

Total46.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARI as a 4.5-point home favorite against SF, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ARI won 47–24; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 42.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 3.9; 45.5 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GB vs SF 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	38–10	W	O44.5
Loose	GB vs TB 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & rest	-4	20–34	L	O41
Loose	NO vs ATL 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & rest	-3	48–17	W	O41.5
Loose	NO vs CAR 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	7–10	L	U41.5
Loose	NE vs MIA 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	23–21	L	O41.5
Loose	LAR vs CLE 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	36–19	W	O39.5
Loose	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Loose	TB vs NO 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	17–16	L	U41
Loose	HOU vs TEN 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-5.5	26–3	W	U44
Loose	LAR vs NO 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-4	30–22	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF LWLLL	5-11	31%	1-6	0-3
ARI WLWLW	10-6	63%	5-3	3-4

Venue/role: SF away, as underdog; ARI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF OOUOO	10-6	63%	6-10
ARI UOOOU	8-8	50%	7-9

Went over in Q3. Of 131 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
ARI	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

SF 29–22 ARI SF leads · 51 games since 1999 · SF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 6 2024	Arizona Cardinals 24 @ San Francisco 49ers 23	SF -7.5	ARI W
Dec 17 2023	San Francisco 49ers 45 @ Arizona Cardinals 29	SF -12	SF W
Oct 1 2023	Arizona Cardinals 16 @ San Francisco 49ers 35	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+3.2 →+2.3▼ 0.9#9

ARI−1.7 →−0.2▲ 1.5#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

Longer bar = better

ARI

Offense

Even

#10

#18

Defense

◀ SF better

#23

−0.4 #24

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #23

60 plays #28

Pace

ARI faster ▶

61 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #13	22.2 #14	Even
Yards / play	6.25 #2	5.54 #19	SF
EPA / play	+0.07 #10	+0.06 #27	SF
Success rate	46% #12	48% #31	SF

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: ARI offense

	ARI off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #15	24.3 #22	ARI
Yards / play	5.85 #7	5.17 #5	Even
EPA / play	+0.06 #11	+0.03 #20	ARI
Success rate	47% #8	45% #23	ARI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.2 #10	6.9 #18	12.1 #15	5.3 #12	5.5 #25	10.8 #16
ARI allowed	4.4 #18	8.1 #24	12.6 #22	4.2 #9	5.1 #7	9.3 #7

ARI scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.2 #10	6.6 #20	11.8 #16	4.6 #14	5.6 #22	10.3 #19
SF allowed	2.9 #5	6.1 #10	8.9 #6	6.4 #29	9.0 #29	15.4 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.