Dolphins @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2024)

Sun, Jan 5, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 18 · at New York Jets · Division game

Weather at kickoff31°F10 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

8-8 · Power #18

final

Final

New York Jets

4-12 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

✓ NYJ W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 18–20 NYJ

✓ NYJ (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -2.5

CloseNYJ -2.5

Total41.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -2.5

5 → NYJ

CloseNYJ -2.5

5 pts toward New York Jets

Total

Open41.5

▼ 2

Close39.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -2.5 · closed NYJ -2.5 · moved 5 toward NYJmodel NYJ -3.5

model NYJ -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (132 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -2.5

CloseNYJ -2.5

Total41.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NYJ as a 2.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NYJ won 32–20; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 39.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.4 against an average line of 2.8; 40.4 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NYJ vs SEA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-1.5	21–26	L	O41.5
Close	NYJ vs HOU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form	-2.5	21–13	W	U43.5
Close	TEN vs HOU 2023 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	16–19	L	U38
Close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Close	KC vs HOU 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–19	W	O42.5
Close	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Close	GB vs TEN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3	17–27	L	O40.5
Close	LAR vs ARI 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	17–27	L	O38.5
Loose	TB vs TEN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	20–6	W	U39
Loose	TB vs NO 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	17–16	L	U41

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	7-9	44%	4-4	3-4
NYJ LWWLL	5-11	31%	2-5	4-6

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; NYJ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UOUOU	7-9	44%	8-8
NYJ OOOUO	9-7	56%	4-12

Went over in Q4. Of 98 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–42.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
NYJ	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

MIA 28–26 NYJ MIA leads · 54 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 8 2024	New York Jets 26 @ Miami Dolphins 32	MIA -6.5	NYJ W
Dec 17 2023	New York Jets 0 @ Miami Dolphins 30	MIA -7	MIA W
Nov 24 2023	Miami Dolphins 34 @ New York Jets 13	MIA -8.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+1.5 →+0.3▼ 1.2#16

NYJ−1.2 →−2.4▼ 1.2#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

MIA

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#20

Offense

Even

#20

#10

Defense

◀ MIA better

#15

−0.1 #16

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

−0.3 #21

63 plays #10

Pace

◀ MIA faster

59 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #22	24.0 #21	Even
Yards / play	5.13 #21	5.00 #3	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.03 #20	+0.03 #23	Even
Success rate	44% #15	43% #12	Even

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	NYJ off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	19.1 #24	20.8 #8	MIA
Yards / play	5.17 #20	5.23 #9	MIA
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	−0.03 #9	MIA
Success rate	43% #17	43% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	3.7 #20	5.4 #25	9.1 #24	4.6 #14	6.2 #19	10.8 #14
NYJ allowed	4.6 #22	7.4 #19	12.0 #20	4.9 #15	6.8 #19	11.6 #19

NYJ scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	4.4 #16	4.9 #29	9.3 #23	4.3 #20	5.5 #25	9.8 #23
MIA allowed	4.0 #11	6.3 #12	10.3 #10	4.9 #15	5.6 #12	10.4 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.