Texans @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2024)

Sun, Jan 5, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Tennessee Titans · Division game

Weather at kickoff41°F6 mphgusts 12Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Houston Texans

9-7 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee Titans

3-13 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

TEN -2.5

✓ HOU W

Total

36.5

▲ Over · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 20–22 TEN

✗ TEN (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEN -2.5

CloseTEN -2.5

Total36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEN -2.5

no move

CloseTEN -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open36.5

no move

Close36.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEN -2.5 · unchangedmodel HOU -2.5

model HOU -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (129 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEN -2.5

CloseTEN -2.5

Total36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEN as a 2.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 23–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points went over 36.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 2.9; 40.8 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEN vs GB 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	14–30	L	O36.5
Close	TEN vs NE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	20–17	L	U38.5
Close	TEN vs JAX 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	6–10	L	U40.5
Close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Loose	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar season form	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Loose	LV vs JAX 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation	-2.5	19–14	W	U41.5
Loose	CAR vs DAL 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.5	14–30	L	O41.5
Loose	GB vs LAR 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-3	20–3	W	U39.5
Loose	JAX vs IND 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.5	37–34	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LLWLL	6-10	38%	3-5	2-3
TEN LLLLL	2-14	13%	0-7	0-5

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; TEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OUUOU	5-11	31%	9-7
TEN OUOOU	9-7	56%	3-13

Went over in Q4. Of 42 earlier overs in games with totals 33.5–39.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
TEN	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

HOU 25–24 TEN HOU leads · 49 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 24 2024	Tennessee Titans 32 @ Houston Texans 27	HOU -7.5	TEN W
Dec 31 2023	Tennessee Titans 3 @ Houston Texans 26	HOU -5.5	HOU W
Dec 17 2023	Houston Texans 19 @ Tennessee Titans 16	TEN -3	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.1 →+0.4▲ 0.3#15

TEN−1.5 →−3.5▼ 2.0#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

HOU

Longer bar = better

TEN

#24

Offense

◀ HOU better

#28

Defense

◀ HOU better

#17

+0.6 #7

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−1.0 #31

63 plays #15

Pace

◀ HOU faster

61 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: TEN defense

	HOU off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #18	27.3 #30	HOU
Yards / play	5.06 #24	5.18 #6	TEN
EPA / play	−0.06 #23	+0.03 #21	Even
Success rate	38% #31	43% #9	TEN

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	TEN off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	18.6 #27	22.4 #16	HOU
Yards / play	5.00 #27	5.09 #4	HOU
EPA / play	−0.11 #29	−0.06 #6	HOU
Success rate	40% #28	40% #3	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.4 #8	7.5 #12	12.9 #10	4.1 #23	4.8 #29	8.9 #27
TEN allowed	5.4 #28	8.6 #27	13.9 #30	6.4 #30	6.9 #20	13.4 #27

TEN scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	5.6 #7	3.7 #31	9.3 #24	4.4 #17	4.7 #30	9.1 #25
HOU allowed	4.6 #19	5.3 #7	9.9 #8	6.1 #27	6.4 #17	12.5 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.