Titans @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2024)

Sun, Dec 29, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Jacksonville Jaguars · Division game

Weather at kickoff70°F6 mphgusts 15Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

3-12 · Power #26

final

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

3-12 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEN -1.5

✓ JAX W

Total

38.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 23–22 JAX

✗ TEN (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJAX -1

CloseTEN -1.5

Total39.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJAX -1

2.5 → TEN

CloseTEN -1.5

2.5 pts toward Tennessee Titans

Total

Open39.5

▼ 1

Close38.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JAX -1 · closed TEN -1.5 · moved 2.5 toward TENmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 63% (56 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJAX -1

CloseTEN -1.5

Total39.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEN as a 1.5-point road favorite at JAX, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 20–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 38.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.1 against an average line of 2.4; 41.3 points a game (usually 43.4). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLE @ LV 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	16–20	L	U38.5
Close	MIA @ NE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	15–10	W	U36.5
Close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Close	CLE @ NO 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	14–35	L	O43.5
Close	NYJ @ JAX 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	32–25	W	O41.5
Loose	WSH @ CHI 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-1	12–7	W	U37.5
Loose	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Loose	NYJ @ TEN 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	24–17	W	U42.5
Loose	DEN @ LAR 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	14–51	L	O36.5
Loose	TEN @ HOU 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	17–10	W	U39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN WLLLL	2-13	13%	2-6	0-4
JAX LWWLL	8-7	53%	3-3	7-4

Venue/role: TEN away, as favorite; JAX home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN OOUOO	9-6	60%	3-12
JAX OUUOU	8-7	53%	3-12

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 55% of games with totals 35.5–41.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	7-3 70%
JAX	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

TEN 32–23 JAX TEN leads · 55 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 8 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 10 @ Tennessee Titans 6	TEN -3.5	JAX W
Jan 7 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 20 @ Tennessee Titans 28	JAX -3.5	TEN W
Nov 19 2023	Tennessee Titans 14 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 34	JAX -6.5	JAX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−1.5 →−3.4▼ 1.9#26

JAX+0.2 →−4.0▼ 4.2#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

TEN

Longer bar = better

JAX

#28

Offense

JAX better ▶

#22

#17

Defense

◀ TEN better

#29

−1.0 #30

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #29

61 plays #23

Pace

◀ TEN faster

58 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Even matchup

	TEN off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #25	26.4 #29	Even
Yards / play	4.98 #27	5.96 #32	TEN
EPA / play	−0.12 #29	+0.14 #32	Even
Success rate	39% #29	45% #23	JAX

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: TEN defense

	JAX off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #27	27.8 #31	Even
Yards / play	5.30 #18	5.18 #7	TEN
EPA / play	−0.04 #20	+0.02 #20	Even
Success rate	41% #22	42% #9	TEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	5.9 #5	3.7 #31	9.7 #24	4.3 #21	4.8 #30	9.1 #26
JAX allowed	4.5 #18	8.4 #26	12.9 #25	4.9 #16	8.6 #27	13.5 #25

JAX scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	2.9 #29	5.1 #27	8.0 #28	4.9 #13	5.5 #23	10.5 #20
TEN allowed	5.5 #28	8.5 #27	14.0 #31	6.9 #32	6.9 #21	13.8 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.