Chargers @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2024)

Sat, Dec 28, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff39°F7 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

9-6 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

New England Patriots

3-12 · Power #30

final

Closing spread

LAC -5.5

✓ LAC W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 23–18 NE

✓ LAC (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -4.5

CloseLAC -5.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -4.5

1 → LAC

CloseLAC -5.5

1 pt toward Los Angeles Chargers

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -4.5 · closed LAC -5.5 · moved 1 toward LACmodel LAC -5

model LAC -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 51% (41 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (53 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -4.5

CloseLAC -5.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 5.5-point road favorite at NE, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 40–7; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 5.7; 42.6 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Very close	DEN @ LV 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	29–19	W	O41.5
Very close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Very close	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Close	GB @ CHI 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	20–19	L	U41.5
Close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Close	NO @ NYG 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	14–11	L	U41.5
Close	TB @ NYG 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	30–7	W	U40.5
Close	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5
Close	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC LWWLW	11-4	73%	5-2	9-2
NE LLWLW	7-8	47%	3-3	7-8

Venue/role: LAC away, as favorite; NE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	6-9	40%	9-6
NE OOOOU	9-6	60%	3-12

Went over in Q4. Of 111 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
NE	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LAC 5–12 NE NE leads · 17 games since 2001 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 3 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 6 @ New England Patriots 0	LAC -4.5	LAC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC−0.7 →+0.3▲ 1.0#14

NE−1.8 →−4.4▼ 2.6#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

LAC

Longer bar = better

#19

Offense

◀ LAC better

#25

Defense

◀ LAC better

#24

+0.7 #5

Turnovers

◀ LAC better

−0.6 #27

58 plays #31

Pace

NE faster ▶

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: LAC offense

	LAC off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #16	24.1 #24	LAC
Yards / play	5.31 #17	5.55 #19	Even
EPA / play	0.00 #15	+0.06 #27	LAC
Success rate	40% #27	45% #26	Even

When NE has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	NE off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #30	18.3 #2	LAC
Yards / play	4.87 #28	5.39 #14	LAC
EPA / play	−0.07 #24	−0.03 #7	LAC
Success rate	43% #17	42% #8	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.1 #10	7.5 #13	12.7 #11	4.0 #24	5.2 #27	9.2 #26
NE allowed	4.5 #15	7.9 #22	12.3 #21	5.7 #27	5.6 #12	11.3 #18

NE scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	3.4 #22	4.5 #30	7.9 #29	2.5 #30	6.9 #14	9.3 #25
LAC allowed	2.9 #4	4.9 #2	7.8 #1	3.9 #5	6.6 #19	10.5 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.