Bengals @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sun, Dec 15, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Tennessee Titans

Weather at kickoff56°F14 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

5-8 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee Titans

3-10 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

CIN -6.5

✓ CIN W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 25–19 TEN

✓ CIN (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -5

CloseCIN -6.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -5

1.5 → CIN

CloseCIN -6.5

1.5 pts toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open48.5

▼ 2

Close46.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -5 · closed CIN -6.5 · moved 1.5 toward CINmodel CIN -3.5

model CIN -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 48% (47 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (44 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -5

CloseCIN -6.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 6.5-point road favorite at TEN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 37–27; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 6.2; 39.6 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & rest	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Very close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Close	ATL @ CAR 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	38–20	W	O45.5
Close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Close	TB @ NYG 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-6.5	30–7	W	U40.5
Close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Close	HOU @ DAL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & rest	-7.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Close	NO @ CAR 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	22–23	L	O43.5
Close	MIN @ JAX 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	12–7	L	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WWLLW	7-6	54%	6-1	5-4
TEN LLWLL	2-11	15%	0-6	2-7

Venue/role: CIN away, as favorite; TEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OOOOU	9-4	69%	5-8
TEN OUOOU	7-6	54%	3-10

Went over in Q4. Of 102 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
TEN	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CIN 9–10 TEN TEN leads · 19 games since 1999 · CIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 1 2023	Cincinnati Bengals 3 @ Tennessee Titans 27	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−0.2 →−0.1▲ 0.1#17

TEN−1.5 →−3.1▼ 1.6#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

CIN

Longer bar = better

TEN

Offense

◀ CIN better

#30

#28

Defense

TEN better ▶

#13

0.0 #15

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

−0.8 #31

62 plays #19

Pace

◀ CIN faster

60 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #6	26.3 #27	CIN
Yards / play	5.84 #9	4.95 #4	TEN
EPA / play	+0.09 #8	−0.01 #12	Even
Success rate	46% #11	41% #9	Even

When TEN has the ball

Even matchup

	TEN off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #30	27.7 #29	Even
Yards / play	4.89 #27	5.64 #23	Even
EPA / play	−0.14 #31	+0.08 #29	Even
Success rate	38% #32	47% #30	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.8 #6	6.9 #15	12.8 #10	7.6 #2	7.5 #9	15.1 #4
TEN allowed	5.8 #30	6.6 #17	12.5 #21	6.3 #30	7.5 #24	13.8 #26

TEN scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	5.2 #10	4.3 #30	9.5 #22	4.3 #18	3.4 #31	7.7 #32
CIN allowed	3.5 #8	9.1 #27	12.5 #24	5.8 #27	9.1 #29	14.9 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.