Browns @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2024)

Sun, Dec 22, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Cincinnati Bengals · Division game

Weather at kickoff31°F3 mphgusts 11DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

3-11 · Power #28

final

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

6-8 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

CIN -10.5

✓ CIN W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 20–30 CIN

✓ CIN (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -7

CloseCIN -10.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -7

3.5 → CIN

CloseCIN -10.5

3.5 pts toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open49.5

▼ 3

Close46.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -7 · closed CIN -10.5 · moved 3.5 toward CINmodel CIN -6.5

model CIN -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -7

CloseCIN -10.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 10.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 24–6; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.8 against an average line of 10.2; 49 points a game (usually 47.4). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	IND vs JAX 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & season form	-10.5	23–17	L	U48
Loose	SEA vs ARI 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-9.5	20–10	W	U43.5
Loose	MIA vs LV 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & season form	-8.5	34–19	W	O43.5
Loose	KC vs LV 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10	48–9	W	O48
Loose	WSH vs DAL 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-10.5	26–34	L	O44.5
Loose	MIN vs DET 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-10	19–17	L	U50
Loose	IND vs HOU 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-11.5	31–3	W	U45
Loose	DAL vs WSH 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & rest	-10	56–14	W	O46
Loose	SF vs ATL 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-8.5	31–13	W	U48
Loose	PHI vs ARI 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-12.5	31–35	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LWLLL	4-10	29%	2-5	4-6
CIN WLLWW	8-6	57%	1-5	6-4

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOOUU	6-8	43%	3-11
CIN OOOUO	10-4	71%	6-8

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
CIN	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

CLE 22–32 CIN CIN leads · 54 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 20 2024	Cincinnati Bengals 21 @ Cleveland Browns 14	CIN -5.5	CIN W
Jan 7 2023	Cleveland Browns 14 @ Cincinnati Bengals 31	CIN -7	CIN W
Sep 10 2023	Cincinnati Bengals 3 @ Cleveland Browns 24	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE+1.1 →−3.2▼ 4.3#27

CIN−0.2 →0.0▲ 0.2#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

CLE

Longer bar = better

CIN

#31

Offense

CIN better ▶

#17

Defense

◀ CLE better

#29

−1.1 #31

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

+0.1 #15

66 plays #2

Pace

◀ CLE faster

62 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Even matchup

	CLE off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	17.1 #30	27.6 #31	Even
Yards / play	4.69 #30	5.65 #25	CIN
EPA / play	−0.15 #31	+0.06 #28	Even
Success rate	38% #32	48% #30	Even

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #5	25.4 #26	CIN
Yards / play	5.84 #8	5.55 #19	CIN
EPA / play	+0.09 #7	+0.01 #18	CIN
Success rate	46% #12	40% #5	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.6 #21	3.6 #32	7.2 #30	3.6 #27	6.3 #20	9.9 #23
CIN allowed	4.2 #12	8.4 #27	12.6 #23	5.4 #21	9.4 #31	14.8 #31

CIN scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.9 #6	7.6 #10	13.6 #8	7.6 #3	7.4 #8	14.9 #4
CLE allowed	4.2 #12	9.4 #29	13.6 #30	6.8 #32	5.1 #6	11.9 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.