Eagles @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2024)

Sun, Dec 22, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Washington Commanders · Division game

Weather at kickoff31°F7 mphgusts 20DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Philadelphia Eagles

12-2 · Power #2

final

Final

Washington Commanders

9-5 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -4.5

✓ WSH W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

PHI 26–21 WSH

✗ PHI (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -3.5

ClosePHI -4.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -3.5

1 → PHI

ClosePHI -4.5

1 pt toward Philadelphia Eagles

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -3.5 · closed PHI -4.5 · moved 1 toward PHImodel PHI -3

model PHI -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 57% (51 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (49 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -3.5

ClosePHI -4.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 4.5-point road favorite at WSH, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 36–33 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.7 against an average line of 3.7; 49.9 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Very close	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5
Very close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Close	DET @ GB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–14	W	U48.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	BAL @ LAC 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	30–23	W	O50.5
Close	SF @ TB 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation	-6.5	23–20	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI WWWLW	9-5	64%	6-1	6-5
WSH LLLWL	9-5	64%	5-2	3-2

Venue/role: PHI away, as favorite; WSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI UOUUU	5-9	36%	12-2
WSH OUOOU	9-5	64%	9-5

Went over in Q4. Of 94 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHI	10-0 100%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
WSH	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

PHI 35–21 WSH PHI leads · 56 games since 1999 · PHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 14 2024	Washington Commanders 18 @ Philadelphia Eagles 26	PHI -4.5	PHI W
Oct 29 2023	Philadelphia Eagles 38 @ Washington Commanders 31	PHI -7	P
Oct 1 2023	Washington Commanders 31 @ Philadelphia Eagles 34	PHI -8.5	WSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI−0.1 →+5.0▲ 5.1#4

WSH−3.1 →+1.3▲ 4.4#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

PHI

Longer bar = better

WSH

Offense

WSH better ▶

Defense

◀ PHI better

#16

+0.2 #13

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #10

65 plays #4

Pace

Even

65 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #9	22.5 #16	PHI
Yards / play	5.72 #11	5.47 #16	PHI
EPA / play	+0.12 #5	+0.01 #20	PHI
Success rate	46% #10	43% #13	Even

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #6	17.6 #1	PHI
Yards / play	5.78 #9	4.70 #1	PHI
EPA / play	+0.15 #4	−0.08 #3	Even
Success rate	49% #3	39% #3	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PHI scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	1.9 #30	9.2 #5	11.1 #17	6.4 #7	8.8 #3	15.2 #2
WSH allowed	2.6 #2	4.7 #2	7.3 #1	5.3 #19	9.9 #32	15.2 #32

WSH scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	6.8 #3	8.5 #7	15.3 #2	5.8 #10	7.2 #9	13.0 #11
PHI allowed	4.4 #15	4.9 #3	9.3 #7	4.4 #9	4.0 #2	8.4 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.