Falcons @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2024)

Sun, Dec 29, 2024, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Washington Commanders

Weather at kickoff60°F13 mphgusts 31Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

8-7 · Power #20

final

Final

Washington Commanders

10-5 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

WSH -3.5

✓ WSH W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 22–25 WSH

✓ WSH (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -4.5

CloseWSH -3.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSH -4.5

1 → ATL

CloseWSH -3.5

1 pt toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSH -4.5 · closed WSH -3.5 · moved 1 toward ATLmodel WSH -3

model WSH -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 53% (130 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 38% (34 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -4.5

CloseWSH -3.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSH as a 3.5-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 30–24; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.7 against an average line of 3.7; 45.5 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Very close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	ARI vs WSH 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	14–42	L	O48.5
Very close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Very close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Very close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Very close	HOU vs MIA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	20–12	W	U46.5
Very close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWW	7-8	47%	4-3	1-4
WSH LLWLW	10-5	67%	6-2	6-3

Venue/role: ATL away, as underdog; WSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL UUOUU	5-10	33%	8-7
WSH UOOUO	10-5	67%	10-5

Went over in Q4. Of 118 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
WSH	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ATL 7–5 WSH ATL leads · 12 games since 2003 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 15 2023	Washington Commanders 24 @ Atlanta Falcons 16	ATL -2.5	WSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.8 →−0.5▲ 0.3#20

WSH−3.1 →+1.1▲ 4.2#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

ATL

Longer bar = better

WSH

#13

Offense

WSH better ▶

#21

Defense

WSH better ▶

#15

−0.3 #21

Turnovers

WSH better ▶

+0.1 #15

63 plays #11

Pace

WSH faster ▶

65 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Even matchup

	ATL off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #18	23.2 #19	Even
Yards / play	5.70 #10	5.42 #15	ATL
EPA / play	+0.01 #15	+0.01 #18	Even
Success rate	47% #10	43% #9	Even

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #5	23.3 #20	WSH
Yards / play	5.78 #9	5.44 #16	WSH
EPA / play	+0.14 #4	+0.02 #21	WSH
Success rate	48% #5	46% #27	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.6 #13	7.9 #10	12.5 #13	5.7 #9	3.2 #32	8.9 #27
WSH allowed	3.8 #8	4.4 #1	8.2 #3	5.3 #22	9.7 #31	15.0 #32

WSH scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	6.8 #3	8.4 #7	15.2 #3	5.4 #12	8.2 #4	13.6 #8
ATL allowed	3.8 #8	9.5 #30	13.3 #27	4.1 #8	5.9 #14	10.0 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.