Dolphins @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sun, Dec 15, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

6-7 · Power #18

final

Final

Houston Texans

8-5 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -2.5

✓ HOU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 22–24 HOU

✓ HOU (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -2.5

CloseHOU -2.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -2.5

no move

CloseHOU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -2.5 · unchangedmodel HOU -2

model HOU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (119 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -2.5

CloseHOU -2.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 2.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 20–12; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 3.2; 50.6 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Very close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	LAR vs MIA 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	15–23	L	U50.5
Close	CIN vs PIT 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	38–44	L	O46.5
Close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WWWLL	5-8	38%	3-3	2-3
HOU LWWLL	5-8	38%	2-4	3-7

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UOOUO	6-7	46%	6-7
HOU UUOOU	4-9	31%	8-5

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 50% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
HOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 3–9 HOU HOU leads · 12 games since 2003 · HOU has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+1.5 →−0.3▼ 1.8#18

HOU+0.1 →+1.3▲ 1.2#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

MIA

Longer bar = better

HOU

#20

Offense

Even

#21

#16

Defense

HOU better ▶

−0.2 #18

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.8 #4

64 plays #10

Pace

Even

64 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	MIA off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #23	22.2 #12	HOU
Yards / play	5.19 #21	5.03 #6	HOU
EPA / play	−0.03 #20	−0.09 #4	HOU
Success rate	45% #14	38% #1	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #12	22.5 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.20 #20	5.42 #15	MIA
EPA / play	−0.04 #22	+0.01 #16	MIA
Success rate	39% #30	44% #19	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	4.1 #19	5.2 #26	9.3 #23	4.2 #20	6.3 #19	10.5 #19
HOU allowed	4.4 #15	4.7 #4	9.1 #7	5.4 #22	7.7 #25	13.1 #24

HOU scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	6.2 #4	7.8 #9	14.0 #6	4.0 #24	5.7 #22	9.7 #23
MIA allowed	4.7 #21	6.0 #11	10.7 #13	5.5 #23	6.3 #16	11.8 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.