49ers @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2024)

Sun, Dec 22, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Miami Dolphins

Weather at kickoff74°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

6-8 · Power #9

final

Final

Miami Dolphins

6-8 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -1.5

✓ MIA W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 24–22 MIA

✗ SF (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -1.5

CloseSF -1.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -1.5

3 → SF

CloseSF -1.5

3 pts toward San Francisco 49ers

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -1.5 · closed SF -1.5 · moved 3 toward SFmodel SF -4

model SF -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 63% (54 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (28 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -1.5

CloseSF -1.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 1.5-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 29–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 2.4; 41.3 points a game (usually 43.3). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARI @ SEA 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	6–16	L	U46.5
Close	NYJ @ ARI 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	6–31	L	U46.5
Close	BAL @ DAL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar season form	-1.5	28–25	W	O47.5
Close	ATL @ TB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-0.5	31–26	W	O47.5
Close	CLE @ NO 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	14–35	L	O43.5
Close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Loose	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Loose	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF LLLWL	5-9	36%	1-5	5-7
MIA WWLLL	5-9	36%	2-5	2-4

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; MIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF UOOOU	8-6	57%	6-8
MIA OOUOU	6-8	43%	6-8

Went over in Q4. Of 134 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
MIA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SF 4–5 MIA MIA leads · 9 games since 2001 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+3.2 →+2.7▼ 0.5#7

MIA+1.5 →−0.4▼ 1.9#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

MIA

#11

Offense

◀ SF better

#21

#12

Defense

Even

#14

−0.3 #21

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #22

59 plays #27

Pace

MIA faster ▶

64 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Even matchup

	SF off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #15	22.3 #14	Even
Yards / play	6.14 #5	5.31 #10	SF
EPA / play	+0.05 #10	−0.01 #13	Even
Success rate	45% #13	44% #18	SF

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	MIA off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	19.7 #24	22.9 #17	SF
Yards / play	5.08 #24	5.02 #6	SF
EPA / play	−0.04 #22	−0.01 #10	SF
Success rate	44% #14	44% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.4 #10	6.1 #21	11.6 #17	5.5 #11	5.4 #25	10.9 #17
MIA allowed	4.6 #17	6.3 #12	10.9 #12	5.6 #26	5.9 #13	11.4 #18

MIA scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	3.8 #20	5.3 #26	9.1 #25	4.4 #19	5.9 #22	10.2 #20
SF allowed	2.6 #3	5.7 #10	8.4 #4	5.6 #26	8.9 #29	14.5 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.