Giants @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2024)

Sun, Dec 22, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Atlanta Falcons

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New York Giants

2-12 · Power #31

final

Final

Atlanta Falcons

7-7 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

ATL -9.5

✓ ATL W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

NYG 17–26 ATL

✓ ATL (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -9.5

CloseATL -9.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenATL -9.5

no move

CloseATL -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ATL -9.5 · unchangedmodel ATL -8.5

model ATL -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–11.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 43% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -9.5

CloseATL -9.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 9.5-point home favorite against NYG, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 34–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 43.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 55%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 5.1 against an average line of 8; 52.3 points a game (usually 47.1). Of the 9 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5
Very close	SF vs NE 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	30–13	W	O41.5
Close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & rest	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Close	PHI vs CLE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-8.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Close	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar season form & spread	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & rest	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Close	LAC vs TEN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	27–17	W	O40.5
Close	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & total	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5
Loose	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & total	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYG LLLWL	4-10	29%	2-3	4-8
ATL LLLLW	6-8	43%	2-5	5-4

Venue/role: NYG away, as underdog; ATL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYG UUOUO	5-9	36%	2-12
ATL UUUOU	5-9	36%	7-7

Stayed under: it needed 6 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYG	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
ATL	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NYG 6–8 ATL ATL leads · 14 games since 2000 · ATL has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYG−2.2 →−4.8▼ 2.6#31

ATL−0.8 →−1.1▼ 0.3#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

NYG

Longer bar = better

ATL

#29

Offense

ATL better ▶

#13

#26

Defense

Even

#24

−0.6 #28

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #25

64 plays #7

Pace

◀ NYG faster

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	NYG off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	14.9 #32	24.4 #25	ATL
Yards / play	4.61 #31	5.51 #18	ATL
EPA / play	−0.11 #29	+0.05 #26	Even
Success rate	40% #25	46% #27	Even

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #21	23.4 #21	Even
Yards / play	5.75 #10	5.70 #26	ATL
EPA / play	+0.01 #14	+0.07 #30	ATL
Success rate	46% #8	46% #28	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYG scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	2.1 #29	4.6 #27	6.7 #32	2.4 #31	5.8 #23	8.1 #31
ATL allowed	4.1 #11	9.6 #31	13.7 #31	4.4 #11	6.3 #15	10.7 #15

ATL scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.9 #12	7.2 #12	12.1 #15	5.1 #12	3.2 #32	8.4 #29
NYG allowed	5.9 #28	6.9 #18	12.8 #25	6.3 #29	4.1 #3	10.4 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.