Patriots @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sun, Nov 24, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Miami Dolphins · Division game

Weather at kickoff76°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

New England Patriots

3-8 · Power #30

final

Final

Miami Dolphins

4-6 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -7.5

✓ MIA W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 18–25 MIA

✓ MIA (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -7.5

CloseMIA -7.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -7.5

no move

CloseMIA -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -7.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -7

model MIA -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 42% (55 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -7.5

CloseMIA -7.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 7.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 34–15; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 45.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 7.4; 49.6 points a game (usually 46.2). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Very close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Close	PHI vs CLE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-8.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Close	LAR vs LV 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	20–15	L	U43.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	MIA vs LV 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	34–19	W	O43.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE LWWWL	5-6	45%	3-2	5-6
MIA LLWWW	4-6	40%	1-4	2-4

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE OOUUO	6-5	55%	3-8
MIA UOOUO	4-6	40%	4-6

Went over in Q4. Of 99 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
MIA	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

NE 29–25 MIA NE leads · 54 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 6 2024	Miami Dolphins 15 @ New England Patriots 10	MIA -2.5	MIA W
Oct 29 2023	New England Patriots 17 @ Miami Dolphins 31	MIA -7.5	MIA W
Sep 17 2023	Miami Dolphins 24 @ New England Patriots 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−1.8 →−4.4▼ 2.6#30

MIA+1.5 →−0.7▼ 2.2#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

MIA

#27

Offense

MIA better ▶

#22

#20

Defense

MIA better ▶

#14

−0.5 #25

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

−0.2 #20

61 plays #23

Pace

MIA faster ▶

63 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	NE off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #31	22.1 #15	MIA
Yards / play	4.60 #30	5.27 #11	MIA
EPA / play	−0.09 #27	−0.01 #14	MIA
Success rate	41% #21	43% #16	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	18.1 #27	22.5 #18	NE
Yards / play	5.03 #22	5.58 #21	Even
EPA / play	−0.07 #24	+0.05 #23	Even
Success rate	42% #16	45% #19	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	3.5 #22	4.4 #27	7.8 #30	3.4 #23	5.4 #23	8.7 #25
MIA allowed	4.4 #18	5.8 #11	10.2 #12	5.8 #24	6.1 #19	11.9 #19

MIA scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	4.7 #14	3.2 #31	7.9 #28	4.0 #21	6.2 #16	10.2 #18
NE allowed	4.5 #20	7.0 #19	11.5 #19	5.7 #23	4.7 #6	10.5 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.