Chiefs @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sun, Nov 24, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Carolina Panthers

Weather at kickoff59°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

9-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Carolina Panthers

3-7 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

KC -11.5

✓ CAR W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 28–16 CAR

✓ KC (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -11.5

CloseKC -11.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -11.5

no move

CloseKC -11.5

No change since the open

Total

Open41.5

▲ 1

Close42.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -11.5 · unchangedmodel KC -12

model KC -12

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -11.5

CloseKC -11.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like KC as an 11.5-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 3, covered 1, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 30–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 7 similar games. 57 points went over 42.5, as in 4 of 7.

Favorite won

3 of 743%

Below normal · usually 85%

Favorite covered

1 of 714%

Below normal · usually 56%

Went over

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 56%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2.1 against an average line of 11; 48.4 points a game (usually 46.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Loose	TEN @ HOU 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-10.5	28–25	L	O42.5
Loose	CIN @ NYJ 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings	-10.5	31–34	L	O43
Loose	DAL @ CAR 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation	-11	33–10	W	U43.5
Loose	IND @ JAX 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & situation	-14	11–26	L	U43.5
Loose	TB @ CAR 2022 · Week 7 · loose	-13	3–21	L	U38.5
Loose	LAC @ HOU 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & season form	-9.5	29–41	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WLLLL	4-6	40%	2-3	3-5
CAR LLLWW	3-7	30%	1-3	3-7

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UOOUO	5-5	50%	9-1
CAR OUOOU	7-3	70%	3-7

Went over in Q3. Of 97 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	9-1 90%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
CAR	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

KC 5–2 CAR KC leads · 7 games since 2000 · KC has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+2.2 →+3.8▲ 1.6#6

CAR−2.5 →−7.4▼ 4.9#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

CAR

#11

Offense

◀ KC better

#28

#12

Defense

◀ KC better

#31

−0.5 #23

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #24

66 plays #4

Pace

◀ KC faster

57 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #11	31.0 #32	KC
Yards / play	5.16 #20	5.79 #28	KC
EPA / play	+0.08 #10	+0.12 #30	KC
Success rate	50% #2	48% #32	KC

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	CAR off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	16.7 #30	19.1 #8	KC
Yards / play	4.91 #26	5.09 #7	KC
EPA / play	−0.15 #31	−0.01 #15	KC
Success rate	40% #26	43% #17	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	2.7 #27	9.7 #4	12.4 #14	2.9 #27	8.1 #5	11.0 #15
CAR allowed	6.7 #31	12.1 #32	18.8 #32	5.6 #19	6.6 #21	12.2 #20

CAR scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.5 #21	5.4 #22	8.9 #22	4.3 #19	3.2 #31	7.5 #31
KC allowed	4.3 #17	6.7 #16	11.0 #15	2.5 #3	5.6 #15	8.1 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.