Ravens @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Mon, Nov 25, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Los Angeles Chargers

Weather at kickoff63°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

7-4 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

7-3 · Power #13

final

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

✓ BAL W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 26–23 LAC

✓ BAL (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -2.5

CloseBAL -2.5

Total47.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -2.5

no move

CloseBAL -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▲ 3

Close50.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -2.5 · unchangedmodel BAL -5

model BAL -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 53% (80 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -2.5

CloseBAL -2.5

Total47.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 2.5-point road favorite at LAC, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 30–23; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 3.4; 52.5 points a game (usually 43.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5
Close	DET @ GB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–14	W	U48.5
Loose	TB @ IND 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	38–31	W	O53
Loose	KC @ CIN 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	24–27	L	U53.5
Loose	KC @ CIN 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form & rest	-4	31–34	L	O50.5
Loose	DET @ ARI 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & rest	-2.5	20–13	W	U51.5
Loose	DET @ MIN 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	30–24	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL WLWLL	5-6	45%	3-3	5-5
LAC LWWWW	8-2	80%	5-0	1-1

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; LAC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL OOOOU	9-2	82%	7-4
LAC UUUOO	3-7	30%	7-3

Went over in Q4. Of 41 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–53.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
LAC	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BAL 10–4 LAC BAL leads · 14 games since 2000 · BAL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 26 2023	Baltimore Ravens 20 @ Los Angeles Chargers 10	BAL -3	BAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+3.1 →+4.7▲ 1.6#2

LAC−0.7 →+1.4▲ 2.1#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

BAL

Longer bar = better

LAC

Offense

◀ BAL better

#19

#18

Defense

LAC better ▶

+0.2 #13

Turnovers

LAC better ▶

+0.8 #5

61 plays #22

Pace

◀ BAL faster

60 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #2	14.5 #1	Even
Yards / play	7.01 #1	5.21 #10	BAL
EPA / play	+0.21 #1	−0.10 #5	Even
Success rate	50% #2	39% #5	Even

When LAC has the ball

Even matchup

	LAC off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #19	24.6 #23	Even
Yards / play	5.48 #15	5.54 #19	Even
EPA / play	+0.01 #13	+0.02 #19	LAC
Success rate	39% #28	41% #10	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	4.4 #14	9.9 #3	14.3 #6	7.8 #4	8.0 #4	15.8 #2
LAC allowed	1.9 #1	3.0 #1	4.9 #1	2.9 #4	6.7 #19	9.6 #10

LAC scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.3 #9	8.5 #10	13.8 #8	2.9 #28	5.3 #24	8.2 #30
BAL allowed	3.5 #8	5.9 #10	9.5 #8	5.3 #17	9.9 #30	15.2 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.