Eagles @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sun, Dec 1, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Baltimore Ravens

Weather at kickoff38°F5 mphgusts 16DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Philadelphia Eagles

9-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Baltimore Ravens

8-4 · Power #1

final

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

✓ PHI W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

PHI 24–27 BAL

✗ BAL (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -2.5

CloseBAL -3.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -2.5

1 → BAL

CloseBAL -3.5

1 pt toward Baltimore Ravens

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -2.5 · closed BAL -3.5 · moved 1 toward BALmodel BAL -3

model BAL -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 54% (114 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -2.5

CloseBAL -3.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 3.5-point home favorite against PHI, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 24–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.6 against an average line of 3.2; 52.4 points a game (usually 43.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Very close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & rest	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	TB vs BUF 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	33–27	W	O53
Loose	DAL vs SF 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	17–23	L	U51.5
Loose	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI WLWWW	7-4	64%	5-1	2-0
BAL LWLLW	6-6	50%	2-3	6-5

Venue/role: PHI away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OOUUO	5-6	45%	9-2
BAL OOOUO	10-2	83%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 33% of games with totals 48.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHI	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
BAL	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PHI 3–3 BAL Series tied · 6 games since 2004 · PHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI−0.1 →+4.7▲ 4.8#3

BAL+3.1 →+5.0▲ 1.9#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

PHI

Longer bar = better

BAL

Offense

BAL better ▶

Defense

◀ PHI better

#18

+0.3 #9

Turnovers

◀ PHI better

+0.2 #13

66 plays #1

Pace

◀ PHI faster

61 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #7	24.5 #23	PHI
Yards / play	5.89 #8	5.48 #19	PHI
EPA / play	+0.12 #5	+0.02 #19	PHI
Success rate	46% #11	41% #10	Even

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #2	18.1 #6	Even
Yards / play	6.97 #1	4.72 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.22 #1	−0.09 #5	Even
Success rate	50% #1	40% #6	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PHI scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	1.5 #32	8.5 #8	10.1 #18	7.9 #3	8.9 #2	16.8 #1
BAL allowed	3.8 #11	5.9 #10	9.8 #8	5.1 #15	9.7 #31	14.8 #27

BAL scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	4.0 #16	10.3 #2	14.3 #6	7.4 #4	8.4 #3	15.8 #2
PHI allowed	4.3 #18	4.4 #3	8.6 #6	5.0 #13	4.5 #5	9.5 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.