49ers @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sun, Dec 1, 2024, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff26°F9 mphgusts 17Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

5-6 · Power #9

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

9-2 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -6.5

✓ BUF W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 21–27 BUF

✓ BUF (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -6.5

CloseBUF -6.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -6.5

no move

CloseBUF -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -6.5 · unchangedmodel BUF -1.5

model BUF -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 44% (72 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -6.5

CloseBUF -6.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 6.5-point home favorite against SF, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 35–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.5 against an average line of 6.3; 48.7 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & total	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Close	KC vs TB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-8.5	30–24	L	O45.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Loose	DAL vs LAR 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	43–20	W	O44.5
Loose	NE vs TEN 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-7	36–13	W	O43.5
Loose	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · loose	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Loose	GB vs SF 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	10–13	L	U47.5
Loose	BAL vs LAR 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.5	37–31	L	O42

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF LWLLL	4-7	36%	1-4	0-1
BUF WWLWW	7-4	64%	3-2	6-2

Venue/role: SF away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF UOUUO	6-5	55%	5-6
BUF OUOOO	7-4	64%	9-2

Went over in Q4. Of 113 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
BUF	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SF 3–4 BUF BUF leads · 7 games since 2001 · BUF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+3.2 →+3.4▲ 0.2#7

BUF+2.3 →+4.4▲ 2.1#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

BUF

Offense

BUF better ▶

#13

Defense

Even

#11

0.0 #15

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

+1.3 #1

61 plays #24

Pace

Even

60 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Even matchup

	SF off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #13	19.5 #7	BUF
Yards / play	6.30 #2	5.40 #16	SF
EPA / play	+0.07 #10	−0.04 #9	Even
Success rate	46% #10	43% #12	Even

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #3	23.6 #21	BUF
Yards / play	5.74 #10	5.06 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.17 #2	−0.02 #11	BUF
Success rate	47% #7	44% #15	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.1 #11	6.9 #17	12.0 #15	6.1 #9	5.5 #22	11.6 #14
BUF allowed	4.9 #26	7.4 #21	12.3 #21	2.1 #2	5.1 #10	7.2 #2

BUF scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.4 #9	8.9 #7	14.3 #5	7.2 #4	7.6 #8	14.8 #4
SF allowed	2.7 #4	5.7 #9	8.5 #5	5.9 #27	9.3 #28	15.2 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.