Bears @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sun, Dec 8, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 14 · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff67°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

4-8 · Power #24

final

Final

San Francisco 49ers

5-7 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -3.5

✓ SF W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 21–24 SF

✓ SF (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -5.5

CloseSF -3.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -5.5

2 → CHI

CloseSF -3.5

2 pts toward Chicago Bears

Total

Open43.5

no move

Close43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -5.5 · closed SF -3.5 · moved 2 toward CHImodel SF -7.5

model SF -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 52% (118 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -5.5

CloseSF -3.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 3.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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games

This game: SF won 38–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.9 against an average line of 4.1; 46.7 points a game (usually 44). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	TB vs CAR 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	30–24	W	O40.5
Loose	TB vs NO 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	17–16	L	U41
Loose	MIN vs CHI 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	31–17	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI LLWLW	7-5	58%	2-3	4-4
SF WLLLL	4-8	33%	3-3	4-6

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI UUUOU	4-8	33%	4-8
SF OUUOO	7-5	58%	5-7

Went over in Q4. Of 113 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
SF	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CHI 8–9 SF SF leads · 17 games since 2000 · SF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−0.3 →−1.3▼ 1.0#21

SF+3.2 →+2.6▼ 0.6#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

CHI

Longer bar = better

#26

Offense

SF better ▶

#11

#14

Defense

Even

#17

+0.8 #4

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

−0.3 #20

65 plays #7

Pace

◀ CHI faster

60 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	CHI off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #23	24.6 #24	Even
Yards / play	4.63 #32	5.19 #7	SF
EPA / play	−0.06 #24	+0.01 #16	SF
Success rate	40% #25	44% #20	SF

When SF has the ball

Even matchup

	SF off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #16	20.0 #9	CHI
Yards / play	6.22 #3	5.75 #27	SF
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	−0.04 #9	Even
Success rate	45% #13	42% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	1.7 #30	6.3 #19	8.0 #27	4.2 #21	7.9 #5	12.1 #12
SF allowed	3.1 #5	6.4 #14	9.5 #7	6.0 #27	9.1 #28	15.1 #30

SF scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	4.9 #12	6.3 #19	11.3 #17	6.2 #10	5.1 #25	11.3 #16
CHI allowed	4.1 #13	7.3 #21	11.3 #16	4.2 #7	4.3 #4	8.4 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.