Bears @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Mon, Dec 16, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Minnesota Vikings · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

4-9 · Power #24

final

Final

Minnesota Vikings

11-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIN -6.5

✓ MIN W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 19–25 MIN

✓ MIN (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -7

CloseMIN -6.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -7

0.5 → CHI

CloseMIN -6.5

0.5 pts toward Chicago Bears

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -7 · closed MIN -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward CHImodel MIN -7.5

model MIN -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 48% (81 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -7

CloseMIN -6.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 6.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 30–12; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8 against an average line of 6.6; 47.2 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-6.5	27–14	W	U42.5
Very close	KC vs DEN 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	16–14	L	U41.5
Very close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & rest	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Very close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Very close	DEN vs CLE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-6.5	41–32	W	O41.5
Very close	LAC vs NO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	26–8	W	U41.5
Close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Close	TB vs DEN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	7–26	L	U40.5
Close	LAC vs TEN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	27–17	W	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI LWLWL	7-6	54%	2-4	4-5
MIN LWWLW	9-4	69%	4-2	5-4

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI UUOUO	5-8	38%	4-9
MIN UUOUO	5-8	38%	11-2

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 19. 50% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
MIN	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

CHI 26–29 MIN MIN leads · 55 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 24 2024	Minnesota Vikings 30 @ Chicago Bears 27	MIN -2.5	MIN W
Nov 27 2023	Chicago Bears 12 @ Minnesota Vikings 10	MIN -3	CHI W
Oct 15 2023	Minnesota Vikings 19 @ Chicago Bears 13	MIN -3.5	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−0.3 →−1.9▼ 1.6#24

MIN−0.1 →+2.4▲ 2.5#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

CHI

Longer bar = better

MIN

#27

Offense

MIN better ▶

#11

#16

Defense

MIN better ▶

+0.8 #5

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #7

64 plays #9

Pace

◀ CHI faster

61 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	CHI off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	19.5 #25	18.5 #4	MIN
Yards / play	4.53 #32	5.28 #10	MIN
EPA / play	−0.06 #24	−0.10 #3	MIN
Success rate	40% #25	40% #5	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #9	21.4 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.79 #10	5.88 #31	MIN
EPA / play	+0.03 #12	0.00 #14	Even
Success rate	46% #12	43% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	1.5 #32	5.8 #22	7.4 #30	4.3 #20	7.8 #7	12.2 #13
MIN allowed	2.8 #5	5.2 #7	8.1 #3	4.2 #8	6.2 #15	10.4 #11

MIN scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	7.1 #2	5.5 #23	12.5 #12	6.6 #5	6.7 #17	13.3 #9
CHI allowed	4.8 #22	7.5 #21	12.3 #19	3.8 #4	5.0 #5	8.8 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.