Sun, Dec 15, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at New York Giants
Closing spread
BAL -16.5
✓ BAL W
Total
43.5
▲ Over · 49 pts
Model before kickoff
BAL 30–14 NYG
✓ BAL (93%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBAL -14
CloseBAL -16.5
Total43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBAL -14
2.5 → BAL
CloseBAL -16.5
2.5 pts toward Baltimore Ravens
Total
Open43.5
no move
Close43.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BAL -14 · closed BAL -16.5 · moved 2.5 toward BALmodel BAL -15
model BAL -15
Opened 43.5 · unchangedmodel 43.5 matches the line
model 43.5 = line ✓
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 41% (27 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBAL -14
CloseBAL -16.5
Total43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for
BAL as a 16.5-point road favorite at NYG. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
Slight Baltimore Ravens ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Baltimore Ravens
2.5 pts (BAL -14 → BAL -16.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 114 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | |
| 1-9 10% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
The series
BAL 5–3 NYG
BAL leads · 8 games since 2000 · BAL has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
BAL+3.1 →+5.1▲ 2.0#2
NYG−2.2 →−4.5▼ 2.3#30
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14
Longer bar = better
#2
Offense
◀ BAL better#29
#17
Defense
◀ BAL better#21
+0.2 #14
Turnovers
◀ BAL better−0.6 #26
62 plays #18
Pace
NYG faster ▶65 plays #6
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| BAL off | NYG def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 29.5 #3 | 22.5 #16 | BAL |
| Yards / play | 6.81 #1 | 5.56 #21 | BAL |
| EPA / play | +0.20 #1 | +0.04 #23 | BAL |
| Success rate | 49% #3 | 45% #22 | BAL |
| NYG off | BAL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 14.9 #32 | 24.5 #24 | BAL |
| Yards / play | 4.65 #31 | 5.42 #16 | BAL |
| EPA / play | −0.10 #28 | +0.02 #20 | BAL |
| Success rate | 41% #23 | 41% #8 | BAL |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
BAL scoring against the NYG defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4.4 #15 | 9.7 #2 | 14.1 #5 | 6.8 #5 | 8.3 #5 | 15.2 #3 | |
5.8 #29 | 6.4 #12 | 12.2 #17 | 6.2 #29 | 3.9 #2 | 10.2 #12 |
NYG scoring against the BAL defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2.2 #29 | 4.5 #27 | 6.7 #32 | 2.5 #30 | 5.7 #22 | 8.2 #31 | |
3.5 #9 | 6.5 #16 | 10.1 #10 | 4.7 #10 | 9.7 #30 | 14.4 #27 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
36° · 5 mph
gusts 14 mph · at kickoff
Rest
BAL14d bye
NYG7d
BAL +7 days
Tempo
Average 127 plays
slowavg 124fast
Quarterback
NYG backup QB started
Model priced NYG with its QB out
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

