Sun, Dec 15, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at New York Giants
Weather at kickoff36°F5 mphgusts 14DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›
8-5 · Power #1
35
▲ winner
Final
@
2-11 · Power #31
14
final
Closing spread
BAL -16.5
✓ BAL W
Total
43.5
▲ Over · 49 pts
Model before kickoff
BAL 30–14 NYG
✓ BAL (93%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBAL -14
CloseBAL -16.5
Total43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
2.5 pts toward Baltimore Ravens
Total
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BAL -14 · closed BAL -16.5 · moved 2.5 toward BALmodel BAL -15
Opened 43.5 · unchangedmodel 43.5 matches the line
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 41% (27 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBAL -14
CloseBAL -16.5
Total43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

No recent game is a close match for BAL as a 16.5-point road favorite at NYG. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.

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History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
Slight Baltimore Ravens ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Market moved toward Baltimore Ravens
2.5 pts (BAL -14 → BAL -16.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
BAL+3.1 →+5.1▲ 2.0#2
NYG−2.2 →−4.5▼ 2.3#30
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

BAL
Longer bar = better
NYG
#2
Offense
◀ BAL better
#29
#17
Defense
◀ BAL better
#21
+0.2 #14
Turnovers
◀ BAL better
−0.6 #26
62 plays #18
Pace
NYG faster ▶
65 plays #6
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When BAL has the ball
Advantage: BAL offense
BAL offNYG defEdge
Points / game 29.5 #3 22.5 #16 BAL
Yards / play 6.81 #1 5.56 #21 BAL
EPA / play +0.20 #1 +0.04 #23 BAL
Success rate 49% #3 45% #22 BAL
When NYG has the ball
Advantage: BAL defense
NYG offBAL defEdge
Points / game 14.9 #32 24.5 #24 BAL
Yards / play 4.65 #31 5.42 #16 BAL
EPA / play −0.10 #28 +0.02 #20 BAL
Success rate 41% #23 41% #8 BAL

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
BAL scoring against the NYG defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
BAL scored
4.4
#15
9.7
#2
14.1
#5
6.8
#5
8.3
#5
15.2
#3
NYG allowed
5.8
#29
6.4
#12
12.2
#17
6.2
#29
3.9
#2
10.2
#12
NYG scoring against the BAL defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
NYG scored
2.2
#29
4.5
#27
6.7
#32
2.5
#30
5.7
#22
8.2
#31
BAL allowed
3.5
#9
6.5
#16
10.1
#10
4.7
#10
9.7
#30
14.4
#27

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
NYG +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
36° · 5 mph
gusts 14 mph · at kickoff
Rest
BAL14d bye
NYG7d
BAL +7 days
Tempo
Average 127 plays
slowavg 124fast
Quarterback
NYG backup QB started
Model priced NYG with its QB out