Bills @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sun, Dec 15, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Detroit Lions

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

10-3 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Detroit Lions

12-1 · Power #3

final

Closing spread

DET -2.5

✓ BUF W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 90 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 25–27 DET

✗ DET (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -2.5

CloseDET -2.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -2.5

no move

CloseDET -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▲ 2

Close55.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -2.5 · unchangedmodel DET -1.5

model DET -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 52% (121 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -2.5

CloseDET -2.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 2.5-point home favorite against BUF, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 48–42 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 90 points went over 55.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 3.2; 55.1 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DET vs GB 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	34–31	L	O53.5
Close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Close	MIN vs DET 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-1.5	29–31	L	O50.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Loose	TB vs BUF 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-3	33–27	W	O53
Loose	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Loose	KC vs BUF 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation	-2.5	42–36	W	O54
Loose	LAR vs ARI 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form	-4	20–37	L	O54
Loose	DAL vs SF 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-3.5	17–23	L	U51.5
Loose	ARI vs LAR 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	23–30	L	O51

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF LWWWL	8-5	62%	4-3	1-2
DET LWWLL	9-4	69%	4-3	8-4

Venue/role: BUF away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OOOOO	9-4	69%	10-3
DET UOUUO	6-7	46%	12-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
DET	10-0 100%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BUF 7–1 DET BUF leads · 8 games since 2002 · BUF has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.3 →+5.0▲ 2.7#3

DET+1.6 →+5.7▲ 4.1#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

BUF

Longer bar = better

DET

Offense

Even

#12

Defense

DET better ▶

+1.3 #2

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

+0.6 #7

59 plays #28

Pace

DET faster ▶

65 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #2	18.0 #2	Even
Yards / play	5.98 #6	5.40 #14	BUF
EPA / play	+0.20 #2	−0.12 #2	Even
Success rate	47% #7	40% #4	Even

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	32.1 #1	20.6 #8	DET
Yards / play	6.10 #4	5.47 #17	DET
EPA / play	+0.14 #4	−0.02 #9	DET
Success rate	49% #2	43% #13	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.6 #8	9.2 #6	14.8 #3	7.2 #3	8.6 #4	15.8 #1
DET allowed	4.2 #15	4.1 #1	8.3 #4	4.7 #11	5.0 #8	9.7 #9

DET scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	4.2 #18	14.2 #1	18.4 #1	8.7 #1	4.5 #29	13.2 #9
BUF allowed	4.9 #24	7.5 #22	12.5 #20	3.4 #4	4.8 #6	8.2 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.