Bills @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sun, Dec 8, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Los Angeles Rams

Weather at kickoff69°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

10-2 · Power #4

final

Final

Los Angeles Rams

6-6 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

✓ LAR W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 86 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 26–22 LAR

✗ BUF (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -3.5

CloseBUF -3.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -3.5

no move

CloseBUF -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▲ 2

Close50.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -3.5 · unchangedmodel BUF -7.5

model BUF -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 57% (78 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -3.5

CloseBUF -3.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 3.5-point road favorite at LAR, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 44–42 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 86 points went over 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.5 against an average line of 3.4; 52.5 points a game (usually 44). Of the 7 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Very close	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Close	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	BAL @ LAC 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	30–23	W	O50.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5
Close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WLWWW	8-4	67%	4-2	7-2
LAR WLWLW	5-7	42%	2-4	2-5

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; LAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF UOOOO	8-4	67%	10-2
LAR UUOOU	6-6	50%	6-6

Went over in Q3. Of 43 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–53.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
LAR	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BUF 6–2 LAR BUF leads · 8 games since 2004 · BUF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.3 →+5.2▲ 2.9#2

LAR+0.7 →−0.8▼ 1.5#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

BUF

Longer bar = better

LAR

Offense

◀ BUF better

#15

#11

Defense

◀ BUF better

#23

+1.4 #1

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

+0.3 #11

60 plays #26

Pace

LAR faster ▶

61 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #2	24.2 #21	BUF
Yards / play	5.81 #8	5.68 #25	BUF
EPA / play	+0.18 #2	+0.04 #22	BUF
Success rate	47% #6	45% #24	BUF

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #20	18.7 #7	BUF
Yards / play	5.41 #15	5.38 #15	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	−0.05 #8	BUF
Success rate	47% #7	42% #12	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.5 #8	9.3 #5	14.8 #3	7.2 #3	7.6 #7	14.8 #4
LAR allowed	5.8 #28	5.9 #8	11.7 #18	6.3 #29	5.8 #13	12.0 #20

LAR scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	1.7 #30	5.8 #23	7.5 #31	6.3 #9	6.9 #14	13.2 #10
BUF allowed	4.8 #24	6.8 #19	11.5 #17	2.5 #2	4.7 #7	7.2 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.