Raiders @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sun, Dec 8, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff70°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

2-10 · Power #27

final

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

6-6 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

TB -6.5

✓ TB W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 21–28 TB

✓ TB (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -6.5

CloseTB -6.5

Total44.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -6.5

no move

CloseTB -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▲ 3

Close47.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -6.5 · unchangedmodel TB -7.5

model TB -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 46% (74 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -6.5

CloseTB -6.5

Total44.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 6.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 28–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 6.5; 49.8 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Close	SF vs DAL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	30–24	W	O47.5
Close	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	HOU vs ARI 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	21–16	L	U48
Close	BUF vs MIA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Loose	LAR vs WSH 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation & season form	-6.5	28–20	W	U48.5
Loose	LV vs CHI 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	9–20	L	U46
Loose	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & rest	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WLLLW	5-7	42%	3-4	5-6
TB LWWWL	7-5	58%	3-3	3-2

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV OOOOU	8-4	67%	2-10
TB OOUUO	8-4	67%	6-6

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 51% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
TB	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LV 4–4 TB Series tied · 8 games since 1999 · TB has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−0.8 →−4.2▼ 3.4#29

TB+0.1 →+1.0▲ 0.9#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

#28

Offense

TB better ▶

#20

Defense

◀ LV better

#27

−1.5 #32

Turnovers

TB better ▶

−0.1 #16

62 plays #15

Pace

Even

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	18.6 #27	24.7 #25	Even
Yards / play	4.89 #28	5.72 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.16 #32	+0.06 #28	Even
Success rate	40% #26	47% #29	Even

When TB has the ball

Advantage: TB offense

	TB off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #6	27.8 #28	TB
Yards / play	5.94 #5	5.24 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.09 #6	+0.05 #24	TB
Success rate	48% #5	45% #21	TB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	4.0 #18	3.9 #32	7.9 #28	3.0 #28	7.7 #7	10.7 #18
TB allowed	3.7 #9	9.5 #27	13.2 #26	4.9 #13	5.6 #11	10.5 #16

TB scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	7.0 #2	7.8 #11	14.8 #3	4.5 #16	8.3 #4	12.8 #10
LV allowed	4.4 #21	7.9 #23	12.3 #22	6.1 #27	9.3 #29	15.4 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.