Falcons @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Mon, Dec 16, 2024, 8:30 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

6-7 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

2-11 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

ATL -5.5

✓ ATL W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 26–21 LV

✓ ATL (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -4.5

CloseATL -5.5

Total41.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenATL -4.5

1 → ATL

CloseATL -5.5

1 pt toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open41.5

▲ 2

Close43.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ATL -4.5 · closed ATL -5.5 · moved 1 toward ATLmodel ATL -4.5

model ATL -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 49% (74 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (47 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -4.5

CloseATL -5.5

Total41.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 5.5-point road favorite at LV, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 15–9; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 5.8; 43.7 points a game (usually 45.4). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NO @ NYG 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-5.5	14–11	L	U41.5
Very close	CIN @ CAR 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-5.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Close	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & rest	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Close	DEN @ LV 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	29–19	W	O41.5
Close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Close	DAL @ NYG 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	20–15	L	U44.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL WLLLL	5-8	38%	3-3	4-4
LV LLLWL	5-8	38%	2-3	5-7

Venue/role: ATL away, as favorite; LV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL UUUUO	5-8	38%	6-7
LV OOOUU	8-5	62%	2-11

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 50% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
LV	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ATL 6–1 LV ATL leads · 7 games since 2000 · ATL has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.8 →−1.2▼ 0.4#20

LV−0.8 →−4.3▼ 3.5#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

ATL

Longer bar = better

#12

Offense

◀ ATL better

#29

#27

Defense

LV better ▶

#24

−0.7 #28

Turnovers

◀ ATL better

−1.3 #32

64 plays #10

Pace

◀ ATL faster

62 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #19	27.8 #31	ATL
Yards / play	5.83 #9	5.37 #14	ATL
EPA / play	+0.02 #13	+0.05 #25	ATL
Success rate	47% #7	45% #25	ATL

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	18.2 #27	25.6 #26	Even
Yards / play	4.86 #28	5.65 #24	Even
EPA / play	−0.16 #32	+0.08 #30	Even
Success rate	40% #27	46% #29	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.8 #13	7.6 #12	12.4 #13	5.3 #12	3.2 #32	8.5 #28
LV allowed	5.2 #25	7.3 #20	12.5 #21	5.6 #27	9.7 #31	15.3 #32

LV scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	3.7 #20	4.4 #29	8.1 #27	2.8 #29	7.3 #9	10.1 #23
ATL allowed	4.4 #15	10.2 #31	14.5 #31	4.8 #13	6.3 #16	11.1 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.