Dolphins @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sun, Nov 3, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Buffalo Bills · Division game

Weather at kickoff55°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

2-5 · Power #18

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

6-2 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -6.5

✓ MIA W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 20–27 BUF

✓ BUF (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -6

CloseBUF -6.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -6

0.5 → BUF

CloseBUF -6.5

0.5 pts toward Buffalo Bills

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -6 · closed BUF -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward BUFmodel BUF -11.5

model BUF -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 45% (60 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -6

CloseBUF -6.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 6.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 30–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.8 against an average line of 7; 56.2 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Close	BUF vs JAX 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation	-4.5	47–10	W	O46.5
Close	SF vs DAL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	30–24	W	O47.5
Close	KC vs CIN 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	26–25	L	O47.5
Loose	KC vs LV 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	30–29	L	O51.5
Loose	BUF vs WSH 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar team ratings	-7	43–21	W	O45.5
Loose	BUF vs DEN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-7.5	22–24	L	U47
Loose	WSH vs CAR 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.5	40–7	W	U50.5
Loose	DAL vs NYG 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	44–20	W	O53
Loose	PHI vs GB 2022 · Week 12 · loose	-6.5	40–33	W	O46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLWLL	1-6	14%	1-2	0-2
BUF LLWWW	5-3	63%	2-1	4-1

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UOUUO	2-5	29%	2-5
BUF UUOOU	4-4	50%	6-2

Went over in Q4. Of 49 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–52.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	3-7 30%
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

MIA 20–35 BUF BUF leads · 55 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 12 2024	Buffalo Bills 31 @ Miami Dolphins 10	MIA -2.5	BUF W
Jan 7 2023	Buffalo Bills 21 @ Miami Dolphins 14	BUF -2.5	BUF W
Oct 1 2023	Miami Dolphins 20 @ Buffalo Bills 48	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+1.5 →−1.6▼ 3.1#23

BUF+2.3 →+3.9▲ 1.6#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MIA

Longer bar = better

BUF

#28

Offense

BUF better ▶

#15

Defense

BUF better ▶

−0.4 #24

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

+1.4 #2

65 plays #2

Pace

◀ MIA faster

58 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	MIA off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	13.9 #32	18.3 #6	BUF
Yards / play	4.87 #25	5.29 #12	BUF
EPA / play	−0.17 #29	−0.07 #9	BUF
Success rate	40% #25	41% #9	BUF

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #5	22.4 #16	BUF
Yards / play	5.83 #9	5.32 #14	BUF
EPA / play	+0.20 #3	−0.01 #15	BUF
Success rate	46% #10	42% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	4.3 #19	2.7 #31	7.0 #32	3.3 #26	3.6 #28	6.9 #30
BUF allowed	6.0 #29	6.3 #14	12.3 #20	2.5 #5	3.5 #2	6.0 #2

BUF scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.0 #14	9.4 #7	14.4 #9	8.1 #2	6.3 #16	14.4 #4
MIA allowed	5.4 #25	6.6 #17	12.0 #17	5.4 #19	5.0 #11	10.4 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.