Commanders @ Giants: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sun, Nov 3, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at New York Giants · Division game

Weather at kickoff54°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

6-2 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

New York Giants

2-6 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

WSH -3.5

✓ WSH W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 25–21 NYG

✓ WSH (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -3.5

CloseWSH -3.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSH -3.5

no move

CloseWSH -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▼ 1

Close42.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSH -3.5 · unchangedmodel WSH -5.5

model WSH -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 57% (64 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -3.5

CloseWSH -3.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSH as a 3.5-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 27–22; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 3.2; 46 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5
Close	PIT @ IND 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	24–27	L	O40.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & rest	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Close	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Close	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Loose	BUF @ SEA 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–10	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH WWWWW	7-1	88%	3-1	4-0
NYG WWLLL	3-5	38%	1-3	3-4

Venue/role: WSH away, as favorite; NYG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OOOUU	5-3	63%	6-2
NYG UOUUO	2-6	25%	2-6

Went over in Q4. Of 86 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
NYG	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

WSH 21–32 NYG (2 tied) NYG leads · 55 games since 1999

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 15 2024	New York Giants 18 @ Washington Commanders 21	WSH -1.5	WSH W
Nov 19 2023	New York Giants 31 @ Washington Commanders 19	WSH -7.5	NYG W
Oct 22 2023	Washington Commanders 7 @ New York Giants 14	WSH -3.5	NYG W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−3.1 →+1.0▲ 4.1#12

NYG−2.2 →−3.7▼ 1.5#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

WSH

Longer bar = better

NYG

Offense

◀ WSH better

#27

#19

Defense

Even

#20

+0.5 #9

Turnovers

◀ WSH better

−0.4 #22

63 plays #14

Pace

NYG faster ▶

65 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #3	21.9 #14	WSH
Yards / play	6.28 #3	5.61 #22	WSH
EPA / play	+0.21 #1	+0.03 #22	WSH
Success rate	49% #4	45% #22	WSH

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: WSH defense

	NYG off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	14.6 #31	20.9 #11	WSH
Yards / play	4.67 #29	5.71 #23	WSH
EPA / play	−0.09 #26	+0.01 #19	WSH
Success rate	40% #22	46% #24	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	5.4 #8	10.1 #2	15.5 #4	7.0 #7	7.0 #12	14.0 #6
NYG allowed	5.5 #27	5.0 #7	10.5 #14	5.4 #18	6.0 #18	11.4 #17

NYG scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	2.8 #27	5.6 #22	8.4 #26	2.9 #28	3.4 #29	6.3 #31
WSH allowed	3.6 #7	4.9 #6	8.5 #4	5.1 #16	7.3 #23	12.4 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.