Giants @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Mon, Oct 28, 2024, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Weather at kickoff52°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

New York Giants

2-5 · Power #31

final

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

5-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

PIT -6.5

✓ PIT W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

NYG 17–23 PIT

✓ PIT (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -5.5

ClosePIT -6.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPIT -5.5

1 → PIT

ClosePIT -6.5

1 pt toward Pittsburgh Steelers

Total

Open37.5

no move

Close37.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PIT -5.5 · closed PIT -6.5 · moved 1 toward PITmodel PIT -7.5

model PIT -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 44% (59 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -5.5

ClosePIT -6.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 6.5-point home favorite against NYG, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 26–18; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 37.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 7.3; 39 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Close	TB vs DEN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	7–26	L	U40.5
Close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Loose	NE vs CHI 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-8.5	14–33	L	O40
Loose	SF vs WSH 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & rest	-6.5	37–20	W	O37.5
Loose	NO vs NYG 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	21–27	L	O42.5
Loose	CLE vs ARI 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.5	27–0	W	U38.5
Loose	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5
Loose	NYJ vs DEN 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-8.5	9–10	L	U39.5
Loose	NO vs NYG 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-6	24–6	W	U39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYG WWWLL	3-4	43%	2-1	3-3
PIT WLLWW	4-2	67%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: NYG away, as underdog; PIT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYG UUOUU	1-6	14%	2-5
PIT UOUOO	3-3	50%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 48 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–40.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYG	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
PIT	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NYG 2–5 PIT PIT leads · 7 games since 2000 · PIT has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYG−2.2 →−3.5▼ 1.3#29

PIT−0.4 →+2.3▲ 2.7#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

NYG

Longer bar = better

PIT

#27

Offense

PIT better ▶

#19

Defense

PIT better ▶

−0.3 #21

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+1.3 #3

65 plays #4

Pace

◀ NYG faster

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	NYG off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	14.1 #31	14.4 #2	PIT
Yards / play	4.49 #30	5.16 #7	PIT
EPA / play	−0.11 #26	−0.10 #6	PIT
Success rate	40% #22	42% #13	PIT

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #17	21.3 #13	Even
Yards / play	4.98 #24	5.44 #19	NYG
EPA / play	+0.02 #13	+0.03 #21	PIT
Success rate	41% #20	45% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYG scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	2.7 #26	5.6 #23	8.3 #26	3.3 #26	2.6 #31	5.9 #32
PIT allowed	5.9 #27	3.4 #1	9.3 #8	0.0 #1	5.1 #14	5.1 #1

PIT scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	2.7 #26	5.4 #25	8.1 #27	6.6 #8	8.3 #4	14.9 #3
NYG allowed	5.4 #24	5.3 #11	10.7 #14	5.1 #17	5.4 #17	10.6 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.