Packers @ Seahawks: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sun, Dec 15, 2024, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Seattle Seahawks

Weather at kickoff44°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

9-4 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Seattle Seahawks

8-5 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

GB -2.5

✓ GB W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 25–23 SEA

✓ GB (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -2.5

CloseGB -2.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -2.5

no move

CloseGB -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▲ 2

Close48.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -2.5 · unchangedmodel GB -4.5

model GB -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 54% (87 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -2.5

CloseGB -2.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 2.5-point road favorite at SEA, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 30–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 3.1; 53.6 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Very close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Very close	BAL @ LAC 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	30–23	W	O50.5
Very close	BUF @ LAR 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	42–44	L	O50.5
Very close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Close	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB LLWWW	7-6	54%	3-2	4-4
SEA LWWWW	6-7	46%	2-5	5-4

Venue/role: GB away, as favorite; SEA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UUOUO	7-6	54%	9-4
SEA UUUOO	7-6	54%	8-5

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 48% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
SEA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

GB 12–6 SEA GB leads · 18 games since 1999 · GB has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+0.5 →+3.8▲ 3.3#5

SEA−0.6 →+0.2▲ 0.8#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

Longer bar = better

SEA

Offense

◀ GB better

#16

#14

Defense

Even

#14

+0.7 #6

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−0.3 #22

60 plays #25

Pace

SEA faster ▶

62 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #7	21.8 #11	Even
Yards / play	6.28 #2	5.38 #15	GB
EPA / play	+0.09 #8	−0.01 #11	Even
Success rate	44% #15	44% #20	GB

When SEA has the ball

Even matchup

	SEA off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	23.2 #14	21.1 #8	GB
Yards / play	5.53 #13	5.35 #12	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #19	−0.04 #8	GB
Success rate	44% #16	46% #29	SEA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	6.2 #4	7.2 #13	13.5 #8	6.6 #5	6.8 #14	13.4 #8
SEA allowed	4.5 #17	6.4 #12	10.8 #12	5.3 #19	5.2 #9	10.5 #13

SEA scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	4.4 #17	7.1 #15	11.5 #17	4.8 #15	6.7 #16	11.5 #14
GB allowed	2.6 #3	9.5 #29	12.2 #17	5.2 #17	3.7 #2	8.9 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.