Browns @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Mon, Dec 2, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff34°F2 mphDryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

3-8 · Power #28

final

Final

Denver Broncos

7-5 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -6.5

✓ DEN W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 17–24 DEN

✓ DEN (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -5.5

CloseDEN -6.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -5.5

1 → DEN

CloseDEN -6.5

1 pt toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -5.5 · closed DEN -6.5 · moved 1 toward DENmodel DEN -4.5

model DEN -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 45% (73 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (39 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -5.5

CloseDEN -6.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 6.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 41–32; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 6.8; 44.8 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Very close	PIT vs NYG 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	26–18	W	O37.5
Very close	LAC vs TEN 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	27–17	W	O40.5
Close	LAC vs NO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	26–8	W	U41.5
Close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	TB vs DEN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar team ratings & total	-5.5	7–26	L	U40.5
Close	CHI vs NE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-6.5	3–19	L	U37.5
Close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LWLLW	4-7	36%	2-3	4-3
DEN WLWWW	9-2	82%	3-1	5-0

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE UOUOO	5-6	45%	3-8
DEN OOUUO	7-4	64%	7-5

Went over in Q3. Of 100 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
DEN	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLE 2–10 DEN DEN leads · 12 games since 2000 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 26 2023	Cleveland Browns 12 @ Denver Broncos 29	DEN -2	DEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE+1.1 →−3.1▼ 4.2#27

DEN−1.0 →+1.0▲ 2.0#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CLE

Longer bar = better

DEN

#31

Offense

DEN better ▶

#19

#20

Defense

DEN better ▶

−0.6 #28

Turnovers

DEN better ▶

+0.2 #13

65 plays #6

Pace

◀ CLE faster

62 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	CLE off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	16.9 #31	16.8 #2	DEN
Yards / play	4.52 #32	4.68 #1	DEN
EPA / play	−0.12 #29	−0.13 #2	DEN
Success rate	38% #31	39% #3	DEN

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #17	24.3 #23	DEN
Yards / play	5.10 #23	5.73 #27	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #18	+0.02 #21	Even
Success rate	42% #18	40% #8	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.3 #25	3.7 #32	7.0 #31	3.2 #27	6.7 #16	9.9 #22
DEN allowed	3.9 #13	6.5 #14	10.4 #12	2.8 #3	3.7 #2	6.4 #1

DEN scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.5 #27	8.9 #7	11.4 #15	3.8 #23	6.8 #15	10.6 #20
CLE allowed	3.8 #11	9.1 #26	12.9 #26	5.8 #26	5.5 #11	11.4 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.