Patriots @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sun, Nov 10, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff61°F20 mphgusts 29Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New England Patriots

2-7 · Power #30

▲ winner

Final

Chicago Bears

4-4 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

CHI -6.5

✓ NE W

Total

37.5

▼ Under · 22 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 14–21 CHI

✗ CHI (72%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -7

CloseCHI -6.5

Total39.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCHI -7

0.5 → NE

CloseCHI -6.5

0.5 pts toward New England Patriots

Total

Open39.5

▼ 2

Close37.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CHI -7 · closed CHI -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward NEmodel CHI -5.5

model CHI -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 45% (65 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -7

CloseCHI -6.5

Total39.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 6.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NE won 19–3 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 22 points stayed under 37.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 6.6; 42.6 points a game (usually 45.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PIT vs NYG 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	26–18	W	O37.5
Close	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5
Close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Close	TB vs DEN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	7–26	L	U40.5
Close	CHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	36–10	W	O39.5
Loose	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Loose	PHI vs CLE 2024 · Week 6 · loose	-8.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Loose	CLE vs ARI 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	27–0	W	U38.5
Loose	PIT vs CHI 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-7	29–27	L	O40
Loose	PIT vs ARI 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6	10–24	L	U41

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE LLLWW	4-5	44%	2-2	4-5
CHI WWWLL	5-3	63%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UOOOU	5-4	56%	2-7
CHI OOOUU	3-5	38%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 54% of games with totals 34.5–40.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
CHI	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NE 6–3 CHI NE leads · 9 games since 2000 · CHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−1.8 →−5.1▼ 3.3#31

CHI−0.3 →−0.5▼ 0.2#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

CHI

#29

Offense

CHI better ▶

#25

#24

Defense

CHI better ▶

−0.3 #21

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

+0.9 #5

60 plays #25

Pace

CHI faster ▶

65 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: CHI defense

	NE off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	15.7 #30	18.5 #6	CHI
Yards / play	4.41 #31	5.37 #16	CHI
EPA / play	−0.13 #28	−0.10 #5	CHI
Success rate	39% #27	40% #9	CHI

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #19	24.1 #21	Even
Yards / play	4.56 #30	5.71 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.08 #25	+0.07 #27	Even
Success rate	40% #24	45% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	3.1 #26	3.9 #28	7.0 #31	3.8 #21	4.9 #26	8.7 #26
CHI allowed	4.5 #17	6.3 #14	10.8 #15	3.3 #5	4.5 #5	7.8 #4

CHI scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	1.3 #31	7.9 #12	9.1 #23	4.3 #18	8.1 #6	12.4 #11
NE allowed	5.6 #27	6.7 #19	12.2 #21	5.4 #19	5.8 #18	11.2 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.