Bears @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Thu, Nov 28, 2024, 12:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Detroit Lions · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

4-7 · Power #24

final

Final

Detroit Lions

10-1 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -10

✓ CHI W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 18–28 DET

✓ DET (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -10.5

CloseDET -10

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -10.5

0.5 → CHI

CloseDET -10

0.5 pts toward Chicago Bears

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -10.5 · closed DET -10 · moved 0.5 toward CHImodel DET -11.5

model DET -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -10.5

CloseDET -10

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 10-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: DET won 23–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.7 against an average line of 9.3; 53.1 points a game (usually 46.7). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Loose	DAL vs SEA 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-9.5	41–35	L	O47.5
Loose	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · loose	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Loose	BAL vs DEN 2024 · Week 9 · loose	-8.5	41–10	W	O46.5
Loose	BUF vs MIA 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & situation	-6.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Loose	DAL vs NYG 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & rest	-10	28–20	L	O45.5
Loose	DAL vs DEN 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & season form	-10	16–30	L	U50
Loose	KC vs TB 2024 · Week 9 · loose	-8.5	30–24	L	O45.5
Loose	BUF vs TB 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-10	24–18	L	U43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI LLLWL	6-5	55%	1-3	3-4
DET WWLWW	9-2	82%	4-1	8-2

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI UUUUO	4-7	36%	4-7
DET OUUOU	5-6	45%	10-1

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 48% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
DET	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

CHI 28–26 DET CHI leads · 54 games since 1999 · DET has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 10 2023	Detroit Lions 13 @ Chicago Bears 28	DET -3	CHI W
Nov 19 2023	Chicago Bears 26 @ Detroit Lions 31	DET -8	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−0.3 →−1.5▼ 1.2#23

DET+1.6 →+5.9▲ 4.3#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CHI

Longer bar = better

DET

#25

Offense

DET better ▶

#14

Defense

DET better ▶

+0.8 #4

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #3

65 plays #4

Pace

◀ CHI faster

63 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: DET defense

	CHI off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #22	16.6 #2	DET
Yards / play	4.59 #30	5.34 #14	DET
EPA / play	−0.06 #23	−0.15 #1	DET
Success rate	41% #23	39% #5	DET

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #1	19.7 #8	DET
Yards / play	6.23 #3	5.74 #25	DET
EPA / play	+0.16 #3	−0.05 #10	DET
Success rate	50% #3	42% #11	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	1.8 #30	6.9 #15	8.7 #25	3.9 #21	7.5 #10	11.4 #15
DET allowed	5.0 #26	4.2 #2	9.2 #6	3.6 #7	3.8 #3	7.5 #4

DET scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	4.1 #17	14.6 #1	18.7 #1	9.0 #1	4.5 #29	13.5 #7
CHI allowed	4.2 #17	6.7 #17	10.9 #15	3.9 #8	4.6 #7	8.5 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.