Lions @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sun, Nov 24, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Indianapolis Colts

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

9-1 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Indianapolis Colts

5-6 · Power #21

final

Closing spread

DET -6.5

✓ DET W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 29–23 IND

✓ DET (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -8

CloseDET -6.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -8

1.5 → IND

CloseDET -6.5

1.5 pts toward Indianapolis Colts

Total

Open50.5

▼ 1

Close49.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -8 · closed DET -6.5 · moved 1.5 toward INDmodel DET -6.5 matches the line

model DET -6.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–8.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 45% (41 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -8

CloseDET -6.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 6.5-point road favorite at IND, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 24–6; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.8 against an average line of 5.4; 52.8 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Close	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5
Loose	PHI @ ARI 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	20–17	L	U48.5
Loose	DAL @ JAX 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	34–40	L	O48
Loose	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Loose	PHI @ WSH 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-5.5	24–8	W	U47.5
Loose	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & total	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Loose	BUF @ TEN 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	31–34	L	O53
Loose	SF @ ATL 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	14–28	L	U46.5
Loose	TB @ PHI 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-7	28–22	L	U53

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WWWLW	8-2	80%	4-1	7-2
IND WWLLW	8-3	73%	4-1	6-2

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; IND home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OOUUO	5-5	50%	9-1
IND UUUOO	5-6	45%	5-6

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 46.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
IND	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DET 2–5 IND IND leads · 7 games since 2000 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.6 →+5.4▲ 3.8#1

IND−0.6 →−0.7▼ 0.1#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

DET

Longer bar = better

IND

Offense

◀ DET better

#22

Defense

◀ DET better

#17

+0.9 #3

Turnovers

◀ DET better

−0.1 #19

62 plays #12

Pace

◀ DET faster

59 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	33.6 #1	22.7 #19	DET
Yards / play	6.33 #3	5.60 #23	DET
EPA / play	+0.16 #3	−0.03 #12	DET
Success rate	49% #3	42% #12	DET

When IND has the ball

Advantage: DET defense

	IND off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #19	17.7 #5	DET
Yards / play	5.43 #16	5.33 #13	Even
EPA / play	−0.07 #23	−0.15 #2	DET
Success rate	38% #31	40% #7	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	4.5 #16	14.7 #1	19.2 #1	9.2 #1	4.6 #28	13.8 #6
IND allowed	3.9 #10	5.4 #7	9.3 #7	5.2 #16	8.3 #26	13.5 #24

IND scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	4.6 #15	4.2 #28	8.8 #23	2.6 #30	10.0 #1	12.6 #8
DET allowed	5.2 #27	4.3 #2	9.5 #9	4.0 #8	4.2 #4	8.2 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.