Colts @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sun, Nov 17, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at New York Jets

Weather at kickoff64°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

4-6 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

New York Jets

3-7 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

NYJ -4.5

✓ IND W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 21–25 NYJ

✗ NYJ (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNYJ -3.5

CloseNYJ -4.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNYJ -3.5

1 → NYJ

CloseNYJ -4.5

1 pt toward New York Jets

Total

Open43.5

no move

Close43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NYJ -3.5 · closed NYJ -4.5 · moved 1 toward NYJmodel NYJ -2.5

model NYJ -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 54% (68 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (31 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNYJ -3.5

CloseNYJ -4.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NYJ as a 4.5-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 28–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 3.4; 47.5 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Close	JAX vs IND 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	37–34	L	O44.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Close	CHI vs LAR 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–18	W	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WWWLL	7-3	70%	3-2	5-2
NYJ LLLWL	3-7	30%	2-2	3-4

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; NYJ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND UUUUO	4-6	40%	4-6
NYJ OOOUU	4-6	40%	3-7

Went over in Q4. Of 92 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
NYJ	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IND 11–8 NYJ IND leads · 19 games since 1999 · IND has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−0.6 →−1.2▼ 0.6#22

NYJ−1.2 →−1.4▼ 0.2#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

IND

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#22

Offense

Even

#20

#17

Defense

NYJ better ▶

#10

0.0 #16

Turnovers

◀ IND better

−0.4 #23

58 plays #29

Pace

Even

60 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	IND off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #18	21.4 #10	NYJ
Yards / play	5.48 #14	4.87 #4	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	−0.01 #16	NYJ
Success rate	38% #31	41% #9	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Even matchup

	NYJ off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #26	22.3 #16	IND
Yards / play	5.00 #22	5.65 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #16	−0.03 #13	Even
Success rate	42% #16	43% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	4.8 #14	3.6 #29	8.4 #26	2.6 #29	9.8 #1	12.4 #10
NYJ allowed	5.1 #24	6.6 #17	11.7 #20	5.1 #17	4.6 #6	9.7 #13

NYJ scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	4.0 #20	5.2 #24	9.2 #21	3.9 #19	4.6 #28	8.5 #25
IND allowed	4.3 #15	5.2 #7	9.5 #7	4.7 #12	8.1 #26	12.8 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.