Colts @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sun, Oct 27, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Houston Texans · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

4-3 · Power #21

final

Final

Houston Texans

5-2 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -4.5

✓ IND W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 22–27 HOU

✓ HOU (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -6.5

CloseHOU -4.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -6.5

2 → IND

CloseHOU -4.5

2 pts toward Indianapolis Colts

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -6.5 · closed HOU -4.5 · moved 2 toward INDmodel HOU -5.5

model HOU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 54% (60 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -6.5

CloseHOU -4.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 4.5-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 23–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 4.8; 48 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARI vs WSH 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	14–42	L	O48.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	CIN vs CLE 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	23–10	W	U47
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	DET vs MIN 2023 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	30–20	W	O47.5
Loose	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar total & rest	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Loose	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Loose	SEA vs MIA 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread	-4.5	24–3	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WWWWW	6-1	86%	2-1	4-0
HOU LLWWW	3-4	43%	1-2	2-4

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND UOOUU	3-4	43%	4-3
HOU UUUOU	2-5	29%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 47% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
HOU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

IND 34–15 HOU (1 tied) IND leads · 50 games since 2002 · IND has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 8 2024	Houston Texans 29 @ Indianapolis Colts 27	HOU -3.5	IND W
Jan 6 2023	Houston Texans 23 @ Indianapolis Colts 19	HOU -1.5	HOU W
Sep 17 2023	Indianapolis Colts 31 @ Houston Texans 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−0.6 →−0.6–#20

HOU+0.1 →+1.9▲ 1.8#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

IND

Longer bar = better

HOU

#19

Offense

Even

#19

#16

Defense

HOU better ▶

+0.3 #11

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #9

59 plays #26

Pace

HOU faster ▶

65 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	IND off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #18	22.7 #17	Even
Yards / play	5.62 #13	4.79 #3	HOU
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	−0.09 #8	HOU
Success rate	39% #27	39% #3	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #14	21.3 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.38 #17	5.63 #22	HOU
EPA / play	−0.02 #18	−0.03 #15	Even
Success rate	40% #25	41% #13	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.0 #13	2.7 #31	7.7 #28	3.3 #23	11.1 #1	14.4 #4
HOU allowed	5.3 #22	4.4 #6	9.7 #11	6.9 #30	6.1 #19	13.0 #27

HOU scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	6.7 #3	6.9 #16	13.6 #10	3.7 #21	6.3 #14	10.0 #20
IND allowed	4.3 #15	4.0 #4	8.3 #4	4.3 #11	8.7 #29	13.0 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.