Texans @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2023)

Sat, Jan 6, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Indianapolis Colts · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

9-7 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Indianapolis Colts

9-7 · Power #21

final

Closing spread

HOU -1.5

✓ HOU W

Total

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 27–26 IND

✓ HOU (55%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -1.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseHOU -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -1.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 1.5-point road favorite at IND, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: HOU won 23–19; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 48, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 1.9; 49.3 points a game (usually 44.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JAX @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-1	24–21	W	U48
Very close	LV @ NO 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2	0–24	L	U48.5
Very close	DAL @ MIN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	40–3	W	U48.5
Very close	LAC @ LV 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	20–27	L	U49.5
Very close	LAC @ JAX 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	30–31	L	O46.5
Very close	GB @ MIN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	31–34	L	O47.5
Very close	LV @ JAX 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	20–27	L	U48
Very close	CLE @ ATL 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-1	20–23	L	U48.5
Very close	LAC @ PHI 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	27–24	W	O49.5
Very close	LAC @ LV 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	32–35	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WLWLW	5-6	45%	2-2	2-4
IND WLWLL	6-5	55%	3-2	1-4

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; IND home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UOUOU	4-7	36%	9-7
IND OOOUO	8-3	73%	9-7

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 11. 49% of games with totals 45–51 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
IND	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HOU 15–34 IND (1 tied) IND leads · 50 games since 2002 · IND has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 17 2023	Indianapolis Colts 31 @ Houston Texans 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−2.2 →−0.1▲ 2.1#13

IND−3.9 →−1.2▲ 2.7#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

HOU

Longer bar = better

IND

#17

Offense

Even

#16

#12

Defense

◀ HOU better

#21

+0.6 #5

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

+0.2 #11

64 plays #13

Pace

Even

65 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #15	24.5 #27	HOU
Yards / play	5.37 #13	5.22 #18	HOU
EPA / play	−0.04 #15	−0.02 #19	Even
Success rate	41% #24	44% #21	Even

When IND has the ball

Even matchup

	IND off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #10	20.9 #13	Even
Yards / play	5.20 #14	5.17 #13	Even
EPA / play	−0.04 #16	−0.04 #15	Even
Success rate	41% #22	41% #8	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	3.8 #21	7.0 #14	10.8 #15	4.1 #21	7.0 #8	11.1 #15
IND allowed	5.7 #28	6.9 #17	12.6 #24	5.0 #22	6.3 #17	11.3 #19

IND scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.2 #8	7.8 #9	13.0 #9	4.4 #16	5.6 #22	10.0 #22
HOU allowed	4.9 #21	4.3 #2	9.1 #3	6.3 #30	5.5 #9	11.8 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.