Steelers @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2023)

Sat, Jan 6, 2024, 4:30 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Baltimore Ravens · Division game

Weather at kickoff39°F17 mphgusts 32Wet0.2 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

9-7 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Baltimore Ravens

13-3 · Power #2

final

Closing spread

PIT -3

✓ PIT W

Total

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 20–18 BAL

✓ PIT (58%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePIT -3

Total34

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePIT -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close34

Line context

Road favorites of 1–5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 56% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePIT -3

Total34

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like PIT as a 3-point road favorite at BAL, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 0 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: PIT won 17–10; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 2 similar games. 27 points stayed under 34, as in 2 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

0 of 20%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 1.8; 24.5 points a game (usually 45.9). When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MIA @ NO 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest	-1.5	20–3	W	U37.5
Loose	PIT @ CIN 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2	16–10	W	U36

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT LLLWW	7-5	58%	4-2	3-2
BAL WLWWW	8-3	73%	4-2	1-0

Venue/role: PIT away, as favorite; BAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT UOOOO	5-6-1	45%	9-7
BAL UOUOO	7-4	64%	13-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-4-1 56%
BAL	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PIT 33–26 BAL PIT leads · 59 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 8 2023	Baltimore Ravens 10 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−7.9 →−1.2▲ 6.7#21

BAL+2.2 →+6.7▲ 4.5#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

PIT

Longer bar = better

BAL

#23

Offense

BAL better ▶

#14

Defense

BAL better ▶

+0.7 #2

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #1

60 plays #26

Pace

BAL faster ▶

64 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	PIT off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	17.9 #27	16.4 #1	BAL
Yards / play	5.05 #22	4.62 #2	BAL
EPA / play	−0.07 #23	−0.15 #2	BAL
Success rate	41% #18	40% #6	BAL

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #2	19.6 #7	BAL
Yards / play	5.96 #3	5.50 #26	BAL
EPA / play	+0.09 #5	−0.05 #12	BAL
Success rate	48% #3	41% #10	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	3.4 #23	5.5 #23	8.9 #26	4.2 #20	4.9 #24	9.1 #25
BAL allowed	2.5 #2	4.5 #2	7.0 #1	2.5 #3	6.8 #22	9.3 #8

BAL scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	6.6 #3	9.3 #4	15.9 #3	6.2 #5	7.1 #7	13.3 #2
PIT allowed	4.4 #18	7.3 #19	11.7 #20	4.4 #13	3.5 #2	7.9 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.